Since this conflict began, I’ve continued to say the same thing: this war is likely to last much longer than most people expect. The market has repeatedly priced in quick resolutions, but the bigger macro picture suggests otherwise. Recent developments only reinforce that view as tensions continue to escalate.

In this short video, I break down why I believe this isn’t a short term story, what I’m watching next, and why it matters for commodities, energy, and the markets.

Give it a watch, and let me know what you think.

This week, I’m focused on three names that deserve your attention.

The first is Nordic American Tankers (NAT).

We’ve already captured a 79% gain in this position, and instead of taking victory laps, I’m looking at where we can add. The chart is pressing against a major multi year resistance level around 6.22. If we get a decisive move above that level, I think it’s worth adding to existing positions. If you don’t own it yet, that breakout becomes an attractive entry point. Strong trends often continue much longer than most investors expect.

Next is Cemex (CX).

This continues to be one of my favorite long term industrial and infrastructure plays. The stock has already broken out to its highest level since 2008, and I don’t think this move is finished. Too many investors sell the moment they have a profit. I’d rather give great trends room to develop. As long as the chart continues making higher highs and higher lows, I believe patience will be rewarded. By year end, I think we’ll be glad we let this winner work.

Finally, let’s talk about coal.

Our coal positions have been frustrating for much of the year. They’ve spent more time in the red than we’d like, and the Global Coal ETF probably looks even worse than many of the individual stocks we own in the sector. But that’s beginning to change.

The chart appears to be carving out a bottom after months of weakness. No, it hasn’t confirmed a new uptrend yet, but it is starting to stabilize. If the broader energy complex continues to hold up, as we’ve been expecting… I would anticipate coal eventually joining the party.

The lesson is simple.

Keep adding to strength. Stay patient with improving setups. And don’t abandon a long-term theme simply because one corner of it has temporarily lagged.

The best portfolios aren’t built by constantly chasing what’s hot.

They’re built by letting winners run while patiently waiting for the next breakout to come to you.

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We’ve been long BDRY, the Dry Bulk Shipping ETF, for more than a year now, and the trend continues to reward patience. This week the ETF pushed to fresh highs once again. That’s exactly what you want to see from a leadership group.

Meanwhile, everyone is focused on one corner of the shipping market.

Oil tankers.

It’s easy to understand why. The BWET Oil Tanker Shipping Rates ETF has exploded more than 1,000% year-to-date as the market prices in higher freight costs following continued tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

It’s an incredible move.

But markets have a funny way of getting everyone to stare at yesterday’s winner while tomorrow’s opportunity quietly develops.

The conversation around Hormuz has centered almost entirely on crude oil. Yet dry bulk shipping has its own exposure to the region.

Industry estimates suggest roughly 4% of global dry bulk trade and tonne-mile demand has already been affected by the conflict. The Gulf is also critical to global agriculture, accounting for 16-18% of global seaborne fertilizer exports while importing roughly 25-30 million tonnes of grain every year. Any disruption doesn’t just impact oil—it changes vessel availability, shipping routes, freight costs, and global commodity flows.

That matters when you’re already seeing strength in the charts.

The first chart, BDRY, continues making new highs.

We’ve been riding this trend for over a year, and I still believe there’s room for it to continue. Strong trends often persist much longer than investors expect, especially when supported by improving fundamentals.

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Friday, we’re told the war is escalating. The headlines scream that the Strait of Hormuz is under threat, airstrikes are expanding, and geopolitical risk is back. By Sunday night, the tone changes. Suddenly the messaging shifts toward deescalation, backchannel negotiations, and assurances that shipping lanes remain open.

The story changes.

The charts rarely do.

That’s why I continue to tell our members to spend less time trading headlines and more time trading price.

The first chart is our long term view of TLT, the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

We’ve been positioned short bonds because the bigger trend hasn’t changed. After years of lower highs and lower lows, we’re now seeing another reversal candle develop near major support. Until price proves otherwise, higher long term interest rates remain the dominant trend.

That matters because rising yields don’t happen in a vacuum. They typically accompany stronger nominal growth, persistent inflation, and continued leadership from hard assets.

The second chart tells the same story from a different angle.

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Kids don’t think that way.

They fall off bikes. Miss shots. Strike out. Fail tests. They laugh, get back up, and try again.

Somewhere along the way, we become afraid to look stupid.

I think that’s one of the fastest ways to stop growing.

I know because failure has been one of the biggest teachers in my life.

When I was younger, I constantly felt like I was failing. I was adopted (by a loving family) and spent years wondering why someone would give up their own child. By the time I was twelve, I had lost much of my family to muscular dystrophy. I was bullied at school because I was a biracial kid being raised by white parents, and because my mother was disabled. Everywhere I looked, I felt like I didn’t belong.

Then I found BMX.

The funny thing about riding bikes is you fail constantly. You don’t land a trick the first time. Or the tenth. Sometimes not even the hundredth. You crash. You get hurt. You get back up.

You learn that failure isn’t the opposite of success. It’s the admission price.

That lesson carried me through more than bike riding. It carried me through addiction, recovery, and rebuilding my life after I had lost almost everything. Looking back, every meaningful chapter of my life began with me being terrible at something.

Including trading.

That’s why I think everyone should deliberately be bad at something.

Learn to surf.

Pick up playing an instrument.

Take a dance class.

Try painting.

Learn a new language.

Not because you’ll become the best at it, but because it reminds you what it’s like to be a beginner. It teaches humility. It builds resilience. It gives you permission to fail without letting failure define you.

Most people aren’t stuck because they lack talent.

They’re stuck because they’re trying to protect an image of themselves as someone who already has it all figured out.

The truth is, nobody does.

Growth has always lived on the other side of discomfort.

So this weekend, go be bad at something.

You might embarrass yourself.

You might fail.

You might even discover something that changes your life the way riding bikes changed mine.

After all, the best things that have ever happened to me started with not being very good at them.

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That sounds logical.

After all, jet fuel is one of an airline’s largest operating expenses.

But the market is telling a different story.

Take a look at these two charts.

Crude oil has experienced one of its most volatile stretches in years. Prices exploded higher as tensions surrounding Iran escalated, only to reverse sharply as fears of a prolonged disruption faded. It’s been an incredibly difficult environment for anyone trying to predict where oil goes next.

Now look at the second chart.

The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) is quietly pressing against all time highs.

That shouldn’t happen if higher oil prices alone dictated airline profits.

Volatility Creates Opportunity

The reason is simple. Airlines don’t just react to fuel prices. They manage them.

Most major airlines hedge a portion of their fuel costs months in advance, adjust flight schedules, shift capacity toward stronger routes, and raise ticket prices when demand allows. While geopolitical events can create short-term spikes in fuel costs, they also create pricing power when travel demand remains healthy.

We’ve already seen airlines pass along some of those higher costs through stronger ticket pricing while continuing to benefit from solid passenger demand. Higher load factors mean more seats are being filled, helping spread fixed costs across more passengers.

In other words, they’re turning lemons into lemonade.

That helps explain why airline stocks have remained remarkably resilient even as crude oil has swung wildly over the past several months.

Price Is Telling A Different Story

That’s why I always tell people to watch price instead of relying on assumptions.

If the market believed higher oil prices were going to permanently damage airline earnings, these stocks wouldn’t be sitting near all time highs.

Of course, the geopolitical backdrop still matters. If tensions in the Middle East were to escalate significantly and keep oil prices elevated for an extended period, margins would eventually come under more pressure. On the other hand, if the conflict continues to cool and oil remains contained, airlines could benefit from lower fuel costs while maintaining many of the pricing gains they’ve already achieved.

Either way, these charts are telling us something important.

Oil has been extremely volatile.

Airline stocks haven’t.

That’s a sign of underlying strength.

The biggest lesson here isn’t about forecasting crude oil. It’s about recognizing when the market refuses to behave the way everyone expects.

Sometimes the strongest signal is when bad news simply stops pushing prices lower.

Right now, that’s exactly what airline stocks appear to be saying.

The headlines will always give you a reason to panic.

Price tells you what is actually happening.

If you want more research like this, along with our portfolios, weekly chartbooks, and live macro discussions, join Against All Odds Research today. We’ll help you follow the trends, manage risk, and ignore the noise.

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Today it’s Iran.

Tomorrow it will be something else.

I think that’s missing the bigger picture.

Inflation didn’t suddenly appear because of a conflict in the Middle East. This cycle has been building for years. The commodity bull market didn’t begin last month. It began back in 2020.

First cam…

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That’s exactly what we’re beginning to see now.

This week’s AAO Macro TrendFinder is once again filling up with commodity names. Tanker stocks like BWET, TNK, STNG, NAT, and Safe Bulkers are back near the top of the leaderboard. Energy names including Equinor, Cheniere Energy, and the Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) are showing renewed strength. Agribusiness and fertilizer companies like Bunge and Yara International are joining the move as well.

The important takeaway isn’t that these stocks had a great week. It’s that the primary trends never broke.

Short term weakness caused plenty of investors to question the commodity bull market, but the longer term uptrends remained intact. Now we’re seeing capital rotate back into many of the same leadership groups that have been driving this cycle.

To me, this looks like the early stages of another leg higher.

Shipping continues to benefit from changing global trade flows and tight vessel supply. Energy remains supported by strong refined product demand and improving fundamentals. Agriculture is beginning to wake up after several months of consolidation.

When leadership starts rotating back into the same sectors that have worked all year, I pay attention.

Commodity bull markets rarely end quietly. They tend to climb in waves.

This pullback may have simply been the pause before the next move higher.

The market will always test your discipline before it rewards your patience.

At Against All Odds Research, we help investors cut through the noise, focus on what matters, and stay aligned with the biggest trends in the world.

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Everyone wants to debate what the Fed is going to do next. I prefer watching what the market is already doing.

Right now, bank stocks are quietly making new all time highs.

That matters.

Take a look at the first chart. The blue line is the 30 Year Treasury Yield, while the brown line is the Effective Federal Funds Rate. The Fed controls the short end of the curve through overnight rates, but the market controls the long end.

Today we have an interesting setup.

The Fed has been holding rates low while the 30 year Treasury yield has remained elevated around 5%.

That creates a favorable environment for banks.

Banks generally fund themselves with shorter term deposits while making longer-term loans like mortgages, commercial real estate loans, and business lending. When short-term funding costs stabilize or fall while long term interest rates remain high, banks can earn a wider spread between what they pay depositors and what they collect on loans. That spread is called the net interest margin, and it’s one of the biggest drivers of bank profitability.

There’s another piece to this story.

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The commodity trade is not over.

Let’s start with the first chart.

We are currently long coffee and cocoa, and today is exactly why we continue to focus on these markets. Coffee is up more than 6%, while cocoa has exploded nearly 10% in a single session.

These aren’t random moves. They are happening because these markets continue to deal with tight supplies, weather uncertainty, and structural production issues. More importantly, they’re doing what strong trends do, they keep rewarding patience.

But don’t stop with the softs.

Look further down today’s leaderboard.

Soybeans are up nearly 3%. Corn is pushing 3% higher. Soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, oats, and even cotton are all participating.

This is exactly what you want to see during a healthy commodity bull market.

Strength isn’t isolated to one contract. It’s expanding across multiple sectors.

Now let’s move over to the energy complex.

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The last workout.

The last trade.

The last laugh with an old friend.

The last hug from your parents.

The last time you hear your favorite song.

The last sunrise you wake up early enough to watch.

That’s why today matters so much.

We spend so much of our lives acting as if time is unlimited. We tell ourselves we’ll start next year. We’ll make the trip when work slows down. We’ll call our parents tomorrow. We’ll chase the dream after we have more money, more confidence, or more certainty.

But life has never made that promise.

Death is the only appointment every single one of us will keep.

The date is already on the calendar. We just don’t get to see it.

People think that’s a depressing thought.

I think it’s one of the most liberating.

Once you accept that your time is finite, something strange happens. You stop trying to impress people you’ll never meet again. You stop wasting energy on arguments that don’t matter. You stop waiting for permission to become the person you already know you’re capable of becoming.

Fear begins to lose its grip.

When I was younger, I thought surviving meant cheating death. After enough crashes, surgeries, addiction, and close calls, I realized surviving isn’t about avoiding death.

It’s about refusing to waste the time you have before it arrives.

The market taught me the same lesson.

Every day traders obsess over finding the perfect entry. The perfect setup. The perfect moment.

It doesn’t exist.

There is only the decision to act when the odds are in your favor.

Life isn’t much different.

There will never be a perfect moment to start the business, have the difficult conversation, or chase the goal that won’t leave you alone.

The clock keeps moving whether you move or not.

One day you’ll make your last trade.

One day you’ll lace up your shoes for the final workout.

One day you’ll hug someone you love without realizing it’s the last time you’ll ever see them.

You won’t receive a notification.

There won’t be a countdown.

Life rarely announces its endings.

That’s why today deserves your full attention.

Stop waiting until you feel fearless. Courage has never been the absence of fear. It’s moving anyway because the alternative is waking up one day with a life full of almosts.

Almost started.

Almost traveled.

Almost loved.

Almost became the person you knew you could have been.

When my life finally ends, I don’t want people to say I played it safe.

I want them to say I used every ounce of time I was given.

Because in the end, none of us beat death.

The only thing we can beat is the regret of not fully living before it finds us.

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Everything else is noise.

The first is the U.S. Dollar Index.

The dollar is sitting at one of the biggest decision points we’ve seen in years. It either breaks higher and escapes this range, or it rolls back into the box.

That distinction matters.

A stronger dollar would likely mean tighter global liquidity. Historically, that’s been a headwind for commodities, emerging markets, and many of the cyclical areas we’ve been favoring. If the dollar pushes higher, I have to respect it.

But if it falls back into this range? That’s an entirely different story. A weaker dollar would continue supporting the macro themes we’ve been discussing for months.

Now look at the second chart.

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Every day I hear someone telling me bond yields are CrAsHiNg.

That’s one of the advantages of being a futures trader.

There isn’t just one bond market.

There are futures across the entire Treasury curve, and that’s exactly why I pay attention to all of them, not just the 10 year.

Look closely. The short end of the curve has been moving higher quickly, while the long end has remained relatively stable. If those short-term yields continue catching up to the 10 year and 30 year, interest rate differentials could strengthen the dollar.

On the other hand, if the short end begins to cool off while the long end starts making new highs, the curve steepens for a different reason, and that would likely coincide with a weaker dollar.

One hand washes the other.

These aren’t separate charts. They’re part of the same story.

That’s why they’ll be on my screen every single day. Understanding the relationship between the dollar and the Treasury curve is one of the best ways to stay on the right side of the macro environment.

Even with the holiday, we’re not slowing down.

📺 Today at 2:00 PM EST: Supercycle live on Stock Market TV

📺 Tomorrow at 10:00 AM EST: The Holy Macro Show

See you there.

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The honest answer? I assumed most of you weren’t trading them, and after talking about coffee and cocoa for what felt like forever, I figured people had grown tired of hearing about them. Most of my members do not trade these products and also there is no way to get exposure using ETFs in the US.

I thought they were off everyones radar.

That was my mistake.

We’re back!

These charts tell the story.

The blue vertical lines mark our buy signals. The red vertical lines mark our sell signals. We don’t trade these markets based on headlines or opinions. We trade the trend. When the signal is there, we’re buyers. When it disappears, we’re out.

Look at cocoa first.

We caught the explosive upside as one of the biggest commodity trends in recent memory developed. The fundamentals were obvious: poor harvests in West Africa, aging cocoa trees, weather disruptions, and years of underinvestment created an enormous supply deficit. Prices eventually became too extended, our sell signal triggered, and we stepped aside while the market corrected.

Now look at coffee.

This has been another incredible trend driven by tight global supplies, weather concerns in Brazil and Vietnam, and growing demand. More importantly, coffee has repeatedly respected our trend signals. We bought the breakouts, exited when the trend weakened, and waited patiently for the next opportunity.

That’s the key.

We don’t have to predict the next move. We simply wait until price tells us the odds have shifted back in our favor.

Well...that’s happening again.

Both coffee and cocoa are beginning to flash signals that deserve our attention. The fundamentals remain supportive, supply remains tight, and now price is beginning to line up with the story once again.

This is exactly the type of setup we look for.

Softs are back.

And with fresh buy signals developing, we’re adding both coffee and cocoa back into the AAO Futures Portfolio.

The next major trend could already be underway. I’m excited to have these markets back on our radar.

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Maybe. But that’s not what the data is telling us.

Let’s start with the first chart.

The year to date performance chart tells you where money is actually flowing, not where people think it should be flowing. Heating oil is up more than 160% this year. Gasoline is pushing 80%. Crude oil is up nearly 60%. Natural gas, soybean oil, and agricultural commodities are sitting near the top of the leaderboard. Even with this pull back.

This isn’t defensive positioning. This is capital aggressively rotating into energy related assets.

Now move to the second chart.

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The war was over.

Energy was dead.

Time to move on.

I’ve been saying for months that this situation wasn’t going to be solved overnight.

Nothing that has happened over the last 48 hours changes that view.

President Trump announced that Iran had requested talks in Doha. Almost immediately, Iranian officials pushed back, denying that any technical meetings were scheduled. Once again, we’re getting conflicting headlines from both sides.

That tells you everything you need to know.

This is still an active geopolitical chess match.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important pieces on the board. Iran continues to use it as leverage in negotiations with the United States, while commercial shipping is still moving through the region at reduced levels following recent attacks on vessels.

Diplomacy may continue.

So can tensions.

Those two things are not mutually exclusive.

Markets have a funny way of pricing in best case scenarios long before they actually happen. Then reality reminds everyone that these situations are rarely that simple.

That is exactly why we don’t trade headlines.

We trade trends.

Frontline is at a major decision point.

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This week was one of them.

South Korea’s KOSPI plunged roughly 10% in a single session before trading was halted. Headlines were screaming. Volatility exploded. Everywhere you looked people were convinced this was the beginning of something much bigger.

Maybe it is.

But price isn’t confirming that story.

As many of you know, I pay very close attention to triple witching dates because markets have a funny habit of making important turning points around them. We just had another one on June 18th. Earlier this year I said there was a high probability the market would bottom the following week after March’s triple witching. Most people thought I had lost my mind.

It bottomed.

Now we’re staring at another similar setup. Add in Monday’s full moon, a period that has historically lined up with important sentiment shifts, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we’re setting up for another midsummer rally heading into July.

Maybe it happens. Maybe it doesn’t.

The point isn’t predicting the future.

The point is staying positioned if it does.

Trading gets hard sometimes. That’s part of the game. The hardest periods are usually when trends become messy enough to shake everyone out right before they resume.

The charts are telling a much different story than the headlines.

Look at the sector dashboard.

Despite all the volatility, seven sectors remain above their 20 day moving average, eight are above their 50 day, and nine are still above their 200 day moving average. That’s not what broad market deterioration looks like.

Even more impressive, most sectors are sitting within striking distance of their 52 week highs.

The primary trend remains higher.

One thing that really stands out is Energy. After a pretty nasty pullback, it’s still sitting second in year to date performance. That tells me institutions haven’t abandoned the space, they’ve simply taken profits after a huge run. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Energy becomes a leader again during the second half of the year.

Industrials continue to lead.

The second chart might be my favorite.

Industrial stocks ($XLI) have spent months grinding higher while everyone has been distracted by volatility. Now they’re breaking out to fresh highs.

That’s exactly what you want to see if you’re bullish.

Strong industrials typically aren’t just good for industrial companies. They tend to pull along materials, metals, mining stocks, machinery, engineering firms and transportation names. Those are exactly the areas we’ve been focusing on inside the portfolios.

When economically sensitive sectors are making new highs while everyone is worried about crashes, I pay attention.

The trend scanner confirms it.

Our AAO Macro Trendfinder is picking up exactly what the sector charts are showing.

Look through the biggest one-month movers:

• Concrete Pumping Holdings (BBCP)

• Carpenter Technology (CRS)

• Deere (DE)

• Terex (TEX)

• General Electric (GE)

• United Rentals (URI)

• Builders FirstSource (BLDR)

• Titan Cement (TTAM)

• Southwest Airlines (LUV)

• United Airlines (UAL)

• Lam Research (LRCX)

• Applied Materials (AMAT)

There’s a common thread.

Industrials.

Materials.

Construction.

Transportation.

Semiconductor equipment.

These aren’t defensive names hiding from risk. These are economically sensitive businesses quietly making higher highs while fear dominates the headlines.

That’s exactly the type of internal strength I want to see before the next leg higher.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: markets rarely ring a bell when they’re ready to move. They simply stop going down when everyone expects them to.

Last year our portfolios returned just over 180%. Am I thrilled that this year has been choppier? Of course not.

But I’m also realistic.

After a massive year, a cooling-off period is completely normal. That’s the price you pay for taking enough risk to generate outsized returns over the long run.

As Mark Douglas said:

“The biggest drawdowns always happen after big runs. If you don’t have a drawdown, that means you aren’t taking any risk and not making any money.”

That’s the damn truth.

Not every day, week or even month is going to be filled with huge winners. That’s not how trend following works. You survive the chop so you’re still standing when the next wave arrives.

And looking at these charts, I think that wave is getting closer.

The turnaround is coming.

Be patient.

The best opportunities rarely feel comfortable when they begin.

Inside Against All Odds Research, we’re tracking the sectors, countries, and individual stocks showing the strongest relative strength before the crowd catches on.

Join us and see exactly how we’re positioned for the next wave.

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Markets have been choppy. Leadership has rotated. Breakouts have failed. Trends have stalled. Some positions have worked. Others have been stopped out.

In other words, it’s summer.

If you’ve traded long enough, you know this is part of the process. Not every environment is designed to make money easily. Some periods are designed to test your patience. Others are designed to test your discipline.

And some are designed to expose who you really are.

That’s why I’ve always believed the market is a mirror.

The market doesn’t create your problems.

It exposes them.

If you’re impatient, the market will show you.

If you’re overconfident, the market will show you.

If you need constant action, constant validation, or constant excitement, the market will show you that too.

Most investors think they are fighting the market.

They’re not.

They’re fighting themselves.

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is confusing what feels good with what makes money.

Buying after a big rally feels good.

Selling after a scary decline feels good.

Holding cash while everyone else is losing money feels good.

But markets rarely reward comfort.

The best trades often feel uncomfortable.

The best opportunities often appear when uncertainty is high.

The biggest winners usually spend some time making you question whether you should own them at all.

That’s the cost of admission.

The other trap is the need to be right.

This one gets almost everyone.

Investors become emotionally attached to an opinion. They build an identity around a trade. They stop listening to price and start defending a narrative.

That’s expensive.

Ego is expensive.

Flexibility is profitable.

The goal isn’t to be right.

The goal is to make money.

Those are not the same thing.

One of my favorite quotes comes from C.S. Lewis:

“Hell is a state of mind—ye never said a truer word. And every state of mind, left to itself, every shutting up of the creature within the dungeon of its own mind—is, in the end, Hell.”

I think about that quote often when it comes to markets.

Because the greatest danger for investors isn’t volatility.

It’s becoming trapped inside their own thoughts.

Inside their own fears.

Inside their own predictions.

Inside their own certainty.

The market is constantly providing new information. The question is whether we’re willing to listen.

That’s why flexibility matters.

That’s why risk management matters.

That’s why trends matter.

The market doesn’t care about our opinions.

The market doesn’t care about our politics.

The market doesn’t care about our feelings.

It simply reflects reality back to us.

Like a mirror.

The good news is that summer doesn’t last forever.

Historically, this is one of the more frustrating periods of the year for trend followers. Choppy markets create frustration. Frustration creates mistakes.

But eventually trends emerge again.

They always do.

Until then, our job remains the same.

Stay flexible.

Respect risk.

Control what you can control.

And don’t get trapped inside the dungeon of your own mind.

That’s where the real drawdowns begin.

The market will always test your discipline before it rewards your patience.

At Against All Odds Research, we help investors cut through the noise, focus on what matters, and stay aligned with the biggest trends in the world.

Join AAO Research and learn how we navigate volatile markets without losing sight of the bigger picture.

Subscribe now

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Stay Connected:

• YouTube: Against All Odds Research Channel (@againstalloddsresearch)

• Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)

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Markets have been choppy. Leadership has rotated. Breakouts have failed. Trends have stalled. Some positions have worked. Others have been stopped out.

In other words, it’s summer.

If you’ve traded long enough, you know this is part of the process. Not every environment is designed to make money easily. Some periods are designed to test your patience. Others are designed to test your discipline.

And some are designed to expose who you really are.

That’s why I’ve always believed the market is a mirror.

The market doesn’t create your problems.

It exposes them.

If you’re impatient, the market will show you.

If you’re overconfident, the market will show you.

If you need constant action, constant validation, or constant excitement, the market will show you that too.

Most investors think they are fighting the market.

They’re not.

They’re fighting themselves.

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is confusing what feels good with what makes money.

Buying after a big rally feels good.

Selling after a scary decline feels good.

Holding cash while everyone else is losing money feels good.

But markets rarely reward comfort.

The best trades often feel uncomfortable.

The best opportunities often appear when uncertainty is high.

The biggest winners usually spend some time making you question whether you should own them at all.

That’s the cost of admission.

The other trap is the need to be right.

This one gets almost everyone.

Investors become emotionally attached to an opinion. They build an identity around a trade. They stop listening to price and start defending a narrative.

That’s expensive.

Ego is expensive.

Flexibility is profitable.

The goal isn’t to be right.

The goal is to make money.

Those are not the same thing.

One of my favorite quotes comes from C.S. Lewis:

“Hell is a state of mind—ye never said a truer word. And every state of mind, left to itself, every shutting up of the creature within the dungeon of its own mind—is, in the end, Hell.”

I think about that quote often when it comes to markets.

Because the greatest danger for investors isn’t volatility.

It’s becoming trapped inside their own thoughts.

Inside their own fears.

Inside their own predictions.

Inside their own certainty.

The market is constantly providing new information. The question is whether we’re willing to listen.

That’s why flexibility matters.

That’s why risk management matters.

That’s why trends matter.

The market doesn’t care about our opinions.

The market doesn’t care about our politics.

The market doesn’t care about our feelings.

It simply reflects reality back to us.

Like a mirror.

The good news is that summer doesn’t last forever.

Historically, this is one of the more frustrating periods of the year for trend followers. Choppy markets create frustration. Frustration creates mistakes.

But eventually trends emerge again.

They always do.

Until then, our job remains the same.

Stay flexible.

Respect risk.

Control what you can control.

And don’t get trapped inside the dungeon of your own mind.

That’s where the real drawdowns begin.

The market will always test your discipline before it rewards your patience.

At Against All Odds Research, we help investors cut through the noise, focus on what matters, and stay aligned with the biggest trends in the world.

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Maybe.

But if we’re going to get a sustained bull market in the dollar, one thing probably needs to happen first.

The short end of the yield curve has to start outperforming the long end.

Take a look at the chart.

Historically, strong dollar environments have often coincided with periods where monetary policy was becoming tighter or liquidity conditions were becoming less abundant. That’s why I’ve paired the Dollar Index with the 10-Year minus 3-Month yield spread.

Notice what happens during many of the major dollar advances.

The yield curve tends to flatten or invert as the short end rises relative to the long end.

Why?

Because if the Fed is truly serious about fighting inflation, they need to raise short-term rates aggressively enough to tighten financial conditions.

And if they do that, the dollar tends to benefit.

That’s the bullish dollar argument.

The problem is that I think it’s a stretch.

Could the Fed raise rates again?

Sure.

Anything is possible.

But let’s be honest about what central banks are.

They are inflationary institutions.

They always have been.

The Fed talks about controlling inflation, but they never want zero inflation. They never want a shrinking money supply. Their entire framework is built around maintaining positive inflation over time.

That’s not a criticism. It’s simply how the system is designed.

The market seems to understand this.

Despite all the tough talk, the long end of the Treasury market has remained stubbornly elevated while the short end has not shown the kind of sustained leadership you would expect if a major tightening cycle were right around the corner.

That’s why this chart matters.

If the yield curve continues to steepen and long rates continue to rise relative to short rates, it becomes harder to make the case for a structurally stronger dollar.

If the short end suddenly starts outperforming and the curve begins flattening again, that’s a different conversation.

For now, I’m watching.

The dollar is trying to break out.

The Fed is trying to sound tough.

But price hasn’t fully confirmed the story yet.

As always, opinions are interesting.

The chart is what pays us.

The dollar. The yield curve. Bonds. Commodities.

These aren’t separate stories. They’re all connected.

At Against All Odds Research, we help investors connect the dots between macro trends and portfolio opportunities before the crowd catches on.

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