Big things are happening in 2025: Leaders and Laggards
"True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes." Daniel Kahneman
First off, some housekeeping
And even bigger things are happening here at AAO. To those who’ve been with me over the last two years thank you. Your support has been incredible.
I’m at home in the markets; trading has been my life for years. But sharing my ideas? That’s been a journey. I’m dyslexic and learn by doing, which means communicating trade ideas didn’t come naturally. At first, it was hard but now, AAO runs 5 days a week, delivering more content than any one-writer publication I know. That growth has made me a sharper trader in every way.
Here’s what AAO brings to the table:
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If you’ve got questions, ask because we’re here to make it all clear.
Starting next year, I’m adding Monthly Conference Calls on the first Thursday of every month.
Use the calendar link here every month. (Obviously I will reshare this frequently)
In 2025, I’ll also expand focus to ETFs, stocks, and strategies that work for everyone. Futures trades will still be here, but I’ll make ideas even easier to act on. Above all, AAO is about teaching you to trade at a high level, to cut through the noise and build real wealth.
As a thank you for being here, I’m running a sale.
https://aaoresearch.substack.com/TheLastSale
Prices will go up after, and more premium content will move behind the paywall. Lock in your spot now as we take AAO to the next level together.
Let’s make 2025 our best year yet.
Let’s Talk About 2025…
Here’s the deal: 2025 is going to be packed with CHANGE. Some of it could juice the markets (think tax cuts and possibly DOGE), while some could slam the brakes (tariffs, a too-strong dollar, stagflation, you name it).
But here’s the kicker: global refinancing in 2025 is shaping up to be massive. Both public and private debt need rolling, and the big question is will global investors have the stomach (or the balance sheet capacity) to handle it?
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves by slapping 2024’s script onto 2025. Sure, this year was wild:
Stocks ($SPY): +24%
Bitcoin: +118%
Gold: +26%
Bonds ($TLT): -11%
That’s a lot of momentum, but it also means lopsided positioning. Valuation alone doesn’t flip trends, but it sure as hell fuels the fire when big moves happen.
And those big moves? They’ll hinge on the SIZE, SEQUENCE, and SCOPE of these global macro shifts:
Growth: US slowing, China’s pause on its decline.
Inflation: Bottoming out, then creeping higher globally.
US Policy: Tax cuts, more fossil fuels, M&A galore, and maybe even tighter borders (but more H1Bs for Silicon Valley).
Trade Wars: Tariffs and retaliation (hello, stagflation).
The Fed: Rate cuts pausing, QT ending, maybe a new Chair.
2025 won’t just mirror 2024, and that’s the point. You need a game plan, know the WHAT, WHEN, and HOW of these changes before betting big.
This all gets me incredibly excited when i think of the macro set ups that are coming down the pipe.
Let’s look at the leaders and laggards.
Futures:
Over a one month time frame, we are seeing an interesting shift from equities in to energy, Crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and let’s not forget that natural gas is up 33% on a one month time frame.
Sectors:
Technology is still leading the way. XLY, XLC and XLK are all heavily tech related sectors.
Countries:
First up, we have Israel, but right on its heels is China. Looking ahead, I think the China story will dominate the macro landscape in 2025. Why? Because when it comes to commodities, China isn’t just important, it’s important to the world economy.
China’s role as the world’s largest consumer of raw materials ties directly to global commodity prices. If China’s economy stabilizes or accelerates, the ripple effect could lift everything from copper to crude oil.
And if the U.S. begins to show signs of slowing (not a collapse, just less dominance), capital might shift toward more promising opportunities, Asia, commodities and small caps being the prime candidates.
I’m not saying the U.S. is out of the game; it’s still a powerhouse. But in 2025, the real money might flow where growth and demand are accelerating.
And if China starts flexing its economic muscles again, this trade could explode.
Also our regime model keeps pointing to inflation being the highest probability bet over the next 6 months.
This week the our trading theme will be 2025.
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