Breaking it Down: The Cycles of Economic Strife and Turmoil
Welcome to 'Breaking It Down,' where we embark on a journey into the world of futures, commodities, bonds, equities and more! In this edition, we shift our spotlight to the Fourth Turning.
The concept of the "Fourth Turning" is a theory proposed by historians William Strauss and Neil Howe in their 1997 book, "The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy." This theory suggests that American history, and by extension, the history of other Western societies, follows a generational cycle marked by recurring patterns of four "turnings" or eras, each lasting approximately 20-25 years. These turnings are characterized by distinct social, political, and economic moods. The theory is based on their observations of American history and generational dynamics.
Here are the four turnings and their characteristics:
First Turning: High, or "High" (Post-Crisis Era)
This is a period of social cohesion, stability, and strong institutions.
Society is focused on individualism and personal success.
Institutions are well-established and respected, and there is a sense of unity and cooperation.
Second Turning: Awakening (Cultural Upheaval)
This era is marked by cultural and spiritual upheaval.
Values and beliefs are questioned, and there is a focus on personal growth and self-expression.
Activism and social movements often emerge during this time.
Third Turning: Unraveling (Social Unrest)
This period sees the weakening of societal institutions and increasing individualism.
There is a growing sense of distrust in institutions and a focus on personal rights and freedoms.
Conflicts and divisions within society become more prominent.
Fourth Turning: Crisis (Period of Crisis and Reconstruction)
This is a period of significant upheaval, characterized by a major crisis or conflict.
Society faces significant challenges, and the existing social order is called into question.
The crisis often requires a collective response and can lead to major changes in institutions and society.
These turnings occur in a cyclical fashion, with each fourth turning (crisis) setting the stage for the next first turning (high).
Jason Perz AAO Research