Built for the 1980s. Doomed for the 2020s.

Why retirement portfolios are Failing — and What Smarter Allocations Look Like

For decades, investors were told to keep it simple: 60% stocks, 40% bonds.
It worked. Because inflation kept falling. Rates kept dropping. And bonds reliably offset stock market pain.

But that world’s gone.

We’re no longer in the Great Moderation. Inflation is sticky. Correlations have flipped. And the 60/40 portfolio — once the darling of wealth managers — is now one of the worst-performing allocation strategies of the last few years.

So what else is out there?

• The Permanent Portfolio (25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% gold, 25% cash yields) spreads risk evenly across economic regimes. It’s not about maximizing return. It’s about surviving any storm.

• Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio builds in inflation protection with gold, commodities, and a bond-heavy base to protect against deflation. It reflects decades of research into how different assets perform across growth and inflation cycles.

• The Dragon Portfolio is built to thrive in chaos. With tail risk hedges, hard assets, trend-following, and a small equity core — it’s not about comfort. It’s about resilience.

Each allocation tells a story.
Each one carries assumptions about what matters most.

Here’s the truth:
There is no perfect portfolio. Only one that matches your beliefs, your risk tolerance, and the world you actually live in.

At Against All Odds Research, we don’t cling to outdated models.
We build adaptive portfolios using data, price, and market structure — not nostalgia.

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How We Think About Allocation at Against All Odds Research
Not just diversified — multi-dimensional.

Most people think of portfolios in terms of tickers. We don’t.
We build portfolios around strategy, regime, and volatility profile — not just asset class.

We're not here to mimic the 60/40 model.
We’re here to thrive across macro environments — and that means blending multiple edges.

Here’s how that plays out inside the AAO framework:

• 🔁 Trend-Following Core – This is the engine. It finds relative strength, rides momentum, and adapts to shifting macro backdrops. When trends are clean, it leads.

• 🎯 Reversal & Mean Reversion Trades – Shorter term swing setups that look for exhaustion or failed moves. These tend to shine when markets are choppy and emotional.

• 🧠 Thematic & Macro Trades – These are global ideas based on positioning, policy or global inflection points. Think: China stimulus bets, energy policy shifts, or commodity cycles.

• ⚠️ Volatility Weighted Sizing – Every position is sized based on risk, not opinion. We use implied and realized vol, not gut feel.

• 🧩 Cross-Asset Exposure – We’re not locked into equities. We rotate through commodities, currencies, international equities, fixed income, and crypto when the opportunity is there.

This isn’t about being everywhere. It’s about being in the right places, at the right time — with the right size.

We don’t bet on outcomes. We bet on structure, momentum, and regime.

That’s how we stay adaptive.
That’s how we survive.
And that’s how we thrive — even when the world looks chaotic.

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In Focus:

Grant Hawkridge of The Daily Number highlights a powerful bullish signal: the Triple 70 Breadth Thrust just triggered.

This rare signal occurs when more than 70% of NYSE stocks rise for three consecutive days. That’s exactly what we saw this week:

• Tuesday: 91% up

• Wednesday: 75% up

• Thursday: 84% up

This kind of breadth thrust reflects broad participation beneath the surface, not just a few mega-caps pulling the market higher.

Grant notes that historically, after this signal fires, the S&P 500 has been higher 95% of the time one year later, with average returns over 19%.

While it’s not an all-clear, and bulls still face obstacles, this thrust—along with the Zweig Breadth Thrust—adds weight to the bullish side of the ledger in Grant’s ongoing weight of evidence framework.

I see this as a constructive signal — but not a green light just yet.

I’ve never fully subscribed to the bear market camp this year.

That said, I’m not long U.S. tech or the S&P 500 right now and we are outperforming the SPX.

My focus remains on where the relative strength lives — and that’s been in international equities, commodities, and stagflation plays.

If this breadth thrust truly signals a rising tide, then it only strengthens our positioning abroad.

Because broad participation usually means there's more liquidity under the surface than most realize.

And that’s exactly the kind of environment where global and cyclical trades tend to outperform.

📊 Want to see our current trades in our weekly portfolio review? (Available every Wednesday.)

Join the community at Against All Odds Research — and stay one step ahead of the herd.

Against All Odds Research

Stay Connected:

• YouTube: Against All Odds Research Channel (@againstalloddsresearch)

• Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)

• Substack: AAO Research

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