Commodities Aren’t Dead. They’re Coiling.
Everyone’s looking at bonds. We’re looking at the move in oil—and now wheat.
Everyone thinks energy, agriculture, and soft commodities are dead. They’re not.
At the same time, everyone’s calling for a bond rally. Maybe it happens. But probably not—not with oil breaking out and inflation still sticky.
The last inflation print gave the crowd a reason to celebrate. Headline inflation moved lower. But food inflation? Still rising.
That matters. It tells you what’s really moving.
Commodities are alive.
And this breakout in oil—it was coming.
The timing is always the hard part, because the market doesn’t care what I want.
It never does.
It’s like the ocean. A surfer doesn’t control the wave. They read it, respect it, and ride it. Try to fight it, and you drown.
My grandmother told me this growing up—especially during hard times:
"God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference."
I can’t change the market’s direction.
But I can choose how I respond to it.
I can enter the next trade with clarity—not fear.
I know that forcing trades only leads to losses.
Right now, the regime is clear. The market is moving higher. I’m not standing in its way.
And it looks like commodities are finally coming with it.
We just stepped into a half position in wheat futures. The chart is doing exactly what we want—coiling near the top of the recent range and threatening to break out.
If we get a weekly close above 602, that’s a new 52-week high, and we’ll scale into a full position.
This is a textbook trend following setup. We’re not trying to guess the low—we’re looking for confirmation and then pressing the trade.
We’re managing risk with a 17% trailing stop, giving the position room to breathe without giving back the whole move.
If wheat can push through that 602 level, the overhead supply is thin. This has the potential to run.
We’re not here to call bottoms. We’re here to catch trends—and this one is starting to speak.
Half size now. Full size when it breaks out.
As you know, I don’t release portfolio reviews on event driven days. I’ll post the full update tomorrow once the dust settles.
It’s been a strong year so far—and if this setup holds, the momentum should continue.
Until then… we have this amazing Fed day video for John Netto for all of you.
Enjoy your day off if you have one. I will see you all tomorrow :)
Against All Odds Research
Stay Connected:
YouTube: Against All Odds Research Channel (@againstalloddsresearch)
Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)
Substack: AAO Research
Support the Bees: Help save the native bees! Learn more and get involved here.