Commodities, the Outlier: The Seven Day Scope (Snipers Only)

Gold, Silver, Plato, Risk Management, ECB, The Fed

Have you ever heard of Plato’s Allegory of the Cave?

Plato's Allegory of the Cave is a philosophical metaphor that illustrates the journey from ignorance to enlightenment. In the allegory, prisoners are chained inside a cave, facing a wall where shadows of objects are projected by a fire behind them. These shadows represent the prisoners' limited perception of reality.
One prisoner is freed and exposed to the outside world, discovering the true forms of objects and the sunlight representing knowledge. Initially dazzled and confused, the freed prisoner eventually grasps the higher reality and feels compelled to return to the cave to enlighten others.
However, the prisoners in the cave reject his newfound wisdom, preferring the familiar shadows. The allegory symbolizes the human condition, where people may be trapped in false beliefs and perceptions until they actively seek knowledge and truth, transcending their limited understanding.

It is about perception. The Allegory of the Cave deeply resonates with me and if you have met me you may know that I have a tattoo depicting this.

Think about the allegory this way, you can see someone else’s problems clearly but we all have trouble solving our own.

I know I would be more popular if I just put out new stock picks and trade ideas constantly. But, I started this company years ago to show people how trading actually works. We have learned to look at trading through a different set of eyes now. We can sit in positions that are making money. We can take smaller positions. We can understand that the construction of our portfolios is all that really matters. Risk management is the key and being right is not the same as making money.

“How could they see anything but the shadows if they were never allowed to move their heads?”
― Plato, The Allegory of the Cave

To see the cave is to leave it.

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So why do most traders fail? The reason is simple. Part of the human condition is our ridiculous fight to be right. Understanding how to be wrong small and be right big is the real key to trading.

“The ECB is sticking to plans to reduce interest rates from record highs, likely at its next meeting in June, in light of a continued fall in inflation in the 20 countries that share the euro.

This is in contrast to U.S. price growth, which has beaten analyst expectations for three months straight, and is now expected to keep the Fed from lowering its own borrowing costs until September.

ECB President Christine Lagarde insisted her institution was "data-dependent, not Fed-dependent" on Thursday. But analysts and policymakers said high U.S. inflation and interest rates were bound to have an impact on the ECB's plans via financial markets and trade.

"While we continue to believe that the ECB will be the first central bank to start cutting rates this year, the path beyond that will remain dictated by Fed action," Max Stainton, a senior global macro strategist at Fidelity International, said.” I will speak more about this in our audio note.

Yields

Whats moving markets?

The tech heavy $SPX is in a short term bearish signal.

Long term trend signals are still holding up!

Silver to Gold ratio is starting to move up. Can we break the 2023 highs? That is the real test.

Copper is moving nicely. Next resistance zone is the 2023 highs.

Large cap tech continues to lead against small caps.

Besides this week the market is still trading in a reflationary posture.

Industrial metals, precious metals and energy continue to outperform!

And finally gold… Everyone will tell you that this will be over soon but I am going to tell you that there is no fever like gold fever especially when the Fed has one choice and that is to “Inflate or Die”!

Stay informed. Stay resilient. Against all odds.

Warm regards, Jason Perz

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Against All Odds Research

jperz1985@icloud.com