Fear of Missing Out Cost Him $3 Billion
Druckenmiller’s mistake is a lesson in timing the next rotation—into commodities.
When I first started studying markets, I was told commodities were going to take over. This was around 2001–2003. My uncle was early—and right.
I didn’t have the money to trade at the time. I could barely dream of buying an ounce of gold. But silver? That was possible. My first buy was at $3.41.
Even if I had more capital to open a brokerage account, I probably would’ve blown it up. But I learned something more valuable than a winning trade:
Markets are cyclical.
You don’t just buy U.S. stocks forever and print money. That’s not how this works.
You have to know what game you're playing—and when to switch boards.
Stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, crypto—they each take turns leading.
And if you’re serious about this, you need to know when that leadership is changing.
That brings me to Stanley Druckenmiller.
In 2000, Druckenmiller sold all his tech stocks. He saw the bubble. He did the right thing. But then he watched junior managers keep raking in returns—and he couldn’t take it. He got emotional, jumped back in, and dropped $3 billion. His worst mistake ever.
What did he do after?
He rotated out of tech and into bonds—just in time for the crash. (That trade produced a 40% return)
Why? Because he’s a macro trader. He follows cycles. He knows when it’s time to move.
And right now, that’s exactly why it’s time to start rotating into commodities.
Not because it’s obvious. Because it’s not.
Because that’s where the next cycle begins.
And the crowd never sees it coming—until it’s already gone.
We’re in a REFLATION regime.
That means risk-on, with policymakers either supporting or staying out of the way as nominal growth keeps surprising to the upside.
What does that mean for positioning?