Fed Day: Who Cares What They Say
Every time the Federal Reserve steps up to the microphone, the world holds its breath.
Screens flicker, traders lean forward, and social media lights up like a fireworks show.
Every word Jerome Powell utters is dissected, twisted, and weaponized.
“Was he dovish?” “Was he hawkish?” “What did he really mean?”
And every time, I have the same reaction:
Who cares.
Because here’s the truth that most people can’t stomach…
the market already knows.
It’s not waiting for Powell’s tone, his facial expressions, or his carefully scripted pauses.
It’s watching the bond market.
And the bond market, as usual, is already whispering the answer.
The Theater of the Fed
The Fed meeting is theater, polished, choreographed, and built for headlines.
Markets act like they’re waiting for divine revelation, but it’s more like watching a magician who’s performed the same trick for 15 years.
We pretend not to know what’s behind the curtain.
But if you’ve been paying attention, if you’ve learned to read price instead of prose, you already know how the story goes.
Look at the data.
The Fed Rate Probability chart doesn’t come from “votes” or dot plots.
It’s not some committee of wizards deciding the future of money.
It’s just math — derived directly from bond prices.
What the market prices is what the Fed will do.
That’s it.
That’s the entire game.
As of today, the market is pricing in a 97.8% chance of a 25 bps cut.
Not because the Fed said so, but because traders in the bond pits already decided it weeks ago.
So when Powell gets up there and talks about “data dependence,” “flexibility,” or “monitoring conditions,” understand this: it’s just noise.
The signal is in the market.
Perception vs. Reality
“Between stimulus and response, there is a space.
In that space lies our power to choose our response.”
— Viktor Frankl
Most traders never find that space.
They’re too reactive, too emotionally hijacked by the latest press conference or tweet.
They mistake information for insight.
They confuse noise for signal.
On Fed Day, you can feel the collective cortisol spike.
Every desk is tense, every sentence on CNBC sounds urgent.
But what’s actually changed? Nothing.
The probabilities already told you where we were heading.
This is what behavioral psychologist Daniel Kahneman meant when he said,
“Being slow-witted is not a moral failing. Failing to slow down is.”
When the market is emotional, you don’t need to be fast, you need to be still.
Let everyone else chase the Fed’s shadow.
You just follow the bond market’s footprints.
What the Market Is Really Saying
Now, step back from the theater and look at what’s actually happening.