Fight to Learn: The Seven Day Scope (Snipers Only)
“Everything you've ever wanted is sitting on the other side of fear.”
Sorry for being a bit late. On a trip.
Free book-https://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/Edwin_LeFevre_Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator.pdf
I strongly suggest reading this book.
A couple of my notes on trends and more…
"the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements - that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire markets and its trend."
"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.(...) Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."
"Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end."
"When a stock is going up no elaborate explanation is needed as to why it is going up."
"He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn't even wish to have to think."
"You find many people, reputed to be intelligent, who are bullish because they have stocks. I do not allow my possessions- or my preposessions either- to do any thinking for me."
"There is profit in studying the human factors-the ease with which human beings believe what it pleases them to believe; and how they allow themselves-indeed, urge themselves- to be influenced by their cupidity or by the dollar-cost of the average man's carelessness. Fear and hope remain the same."
"The principles of successful stock speculation are based on the supposition that people will continue in the future to make the mistakes that they have made in the past."
Early lessons"Investments were not wanted. The demand was for easy money; for the sure gambling profit."
My favorite part is the quote from Old Turkey.
What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.
I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements – that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
So where is the bull market hiding? Currently the reflation trade is leading the way with a small retracement rally in risk off sectors like utilities and consumer staples.
Globally, where is the bull market?
China's response to its disinflationary challenges could significantly influence US inflation dynamics, which are already proving resilient. The upcoming US PCE release carries upside risks following a robust core-PCE price index. Despite expectations, inflation remains stubborn, amplified by China's ongoing economic recovery's potential impact on global inflationary forces. The San Francisco Fed's recent thoughts about this, which highlighted China's substantial role in shaping inflation pressures worldwide.
This continues to put pressure on the commodity market. We are long more than a few commodities at this point and China.
Inflation is always stickier than expected. Once it starts, it rarely ends quickly.
Commodities continue to trend higher. Sometimes you just have to ask yourself a very simple question (Still wait for your buy signals) and that question is do I think the prices of these products will be lower or higher at the end of the year.
The presidential cycle-If you go to my old blog https://www.aaoresearch.com/blog you can get audio notes and see how I traded the 2020 election. It ended up in our best 2 months ever. However, something to remember. The late spring in most election years can be very choppy followed by a drawdown in September and October while everyone is expecting the world to end. All the chest beating about which candidate will win from all of us ends after the election and when uncertainty is taken out of the equation, the market usually rips higher. Right now as always we need to manage our expectation. Most years most of our returns are made in q1 and q4. Keep taking positions but manage your expectations.
At the moment the bull/bear indicator is still holding up well. I have no reason to believe the bull market is over yet.
Over everything, keep positioning yourselves in the material/commodity based sectors and countries. This is where the outperformance will be.
Chinese policymakers are still focused on keeping the foreign exchange stable. The factors influencing the daily CNY fixing have been consistently negative, and there has been a noticeable tightening of CNH liquidity in the past few weeks. However, the truth is that China is eager to boost exports, especially with Japan aggressively devaluing the yen to its lowest level in thirty years. Given this situation, it's likely just a matter of time before those advocating for currency devaluation, as they did back in 2015, gain the upper hand once again.
Which was a bottom in crypto currency.
Stay informed. Stay resilient. Against all odds.
Warm regards, Jason Perz
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Against All Odds Research
jperz1985@icloud.com