How to get Bitcoin to 1 Million...
A recipe for an explosion. From 100k-120k quickly: add a dash of a weaker dollar.
Bitcoin is my go-to indicator for understanding risk on/risk off trends.
People pointed this out often when I said that Bitcoin is telling us that the market will move higher after the election by saying, “Jason, you only have limited data on Bitcoin and election years.”
And yes, they’re right! But speculative assets have signaled shifts in global liquidity and risk appetite for decades.
Consider these speculative waves:
1970s-1980s: Nifty Fifty Stocks – Companies like IBM, Coca-Cola, and Xerox soared with high valuations, becoming “buy-and-hold” favorites and stoking market excitement.
1980s-1990s: Japanese Real Estate and Stocks – Japan’s boom triggered a massive bubble in real estate and equities, especially the Nikkei.
1990s: Emerging Market Stocks – Latin American and Asian markets attracted speculative inflows, with a high-risk chase for returns that led to financial crises.
1990s-2000s: Dot-Com Stocks – The internet boom spurred a frenzy in tech stocks, ending with the dot-com crash in 2000.
2000s: Housing and Mortgage-Backed Securities – Low rates fueled a real estate and MBS bubble, setting the stage for the 2008 crisis.
2010s to Today: Cryptocurrencies – Bitcoin has become a new speculative asset with dramatic price swings that capture global attention.
By backtesting these trends, you’ll see how speculative assets often forecast market turns. I’m not saying crypto will crash the market, but Bitcoin’s movements are worth watching for clues about the “risk-on” or “risk-off” environment. That’s why, as I noted on October 30th, it’s time for Bitcoin to move.
When investors feel confident, they move into riskier assets like Bitcoin, which usually signals a strong “risk-on” environment across markets. So when Bitcoin climbs, it’s often a sign that investors are optimistic, liquidity is high, and there’s an appetite for risk.
To get Bitcoin over $100K (and keep it there), we’ll need some help from the dollar. A weaker dollar makes Bitcoin more attractive to investors, drawing in both domestic and international demand.
Bitcoin can rise even with today’s range-bound dollar, but it thrives in a weaker dollar environment.
Right now, as I shared yesterday, the dollar’s holding steady. But if it dips, Bitcoin could break past 100k fast. Expect a sharp 20% move once it clears that level.
Yes, it will go straight to 120k if it breaks past 100k.
(Portfolio review and new trade set ups tomorrow.")
Signals:
The obvious: Equities, Bitcoin, and most of the market are in an uptrend.
No kidding… lol.
The fundamentals are exactly the same as last week.
The new stuff: XLE is a buy across all time frames, while copper, GDX, and Germany have short-term sell signals.
This is a bull market, as Old Turkey would say!
'I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements – that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.’
– Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
This is a tough lesson every trader learns (myself included) and if you want to raise your win rate and returns… extend your time frame.
Quick side note (ADHD moment!): you’re probably wondering about the trade that’s anchored our portfolio all year.
Let’s talk about gold.
Here’s where we stand: we’ve held a primary gold position over a very long timeframe, capturing a 44% gain not including leverage. Long-term, I still see more upside. While there’s been a shift out of safe havens like gold and into riskier assets like equities and crypto, I’m not bearish on gold at all.
This is why I emphasize showing what I do in real time.
Diversification stabilized our portfolio, with strong returns in gold protecting our gains early in the year, setting us up to take advantage of today’s market momentum.
Against All Odds Research
Stay Connected:
YouTube: Against All Odds Research Channel (@againstalloddsresearch)
Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)
Substack: AAO Research
Support the Bees: Help save the native bees! Learn more and get involved here.
(Portfolio review and new trade set ups tomorrow.")