How to Outperform Over Decades, Not Days
Think in cycles. Follow capital. Stop chasing headlines.
If you want to outperform over time, you need to think in cycles—not headlines.
Markets are not linear. They move in regimes. They rotate through leaders. What dominates in one decade rarely carries into the next.
The first chart from Goldman tells you which company led the S&P 500 by market cap each year since 1955. General Motors owned the post war boom. IBM led during the mainframe era. GE in the conglomerate cycle. Microsoft and tech in the late '90s. Exxon during the commodity supercycle. And now, Apple. (Yes, I know that has changed recently)
Different companies. Different themes. But always the same truth: leadership rotates.
The second chart zooms out to the sector level over 200+ years. Finance and real estate powered the early U.S. economy. Then came railroads and transport. Then energy and materials during industrialization. And now, technology sits at the top.
Each time, the dominant sector reflected the economic engine of the era. And each time, investors believed this time was different. But the cycle turned anyway.
The danger isn’t in being wrong. It’s in staying committed to the last cycle while the next one forms beneath the surface.
That’s what most investors miss.
They chase what worked. They anchor to the past. And they ignore the signals pointing to change—until it's priced in.
That’s why we focus on regime awareness.
It’s not about calling tops or bottoms. It’s about recognizing when capital is rotating. It's about understanding what’s gaining strength, what’s losing momentum, and where price is leading flows.
In a disinflationary world, tech and growth dominate. In a reflationary or stagflationary regimes, the leadership shifts—to real assets, to commodities, to cyclicals.
Cycles don’t die—they just change shape.
And if you want to stay ahead, you don’t need to predict the future.
You just need to stop worshipping the past.
(Audio, swing trades, long term portfolio and futures and options portfolio below.)