How to Stop Guessing Market Bottoms
No guessing. No hoping. Just signals that matter.
This checklist is about clarity. It cuts through the noise. When markets fall apart, everyone looks for a bottom. Most guess. This keeps you from guessing.
It tracks three things that matter:
Price – where the money is moving
Sentiment – how scared or greedy people are
Fundamentals – whether the economy is breaking or stabilizing
You don’t need every box checked. But when many are, it matters. It means risk is shifting. That’s when opportunity shows up. (we are working on a bottom currently but we are not there yet)
Don’t hope for a bottom. Build a process.
This is the process.
Feel free to copy it (for those of you who have been around for the last decade you have seen this before) and build your own.
Follow the checklist master Grant Hawkridge at The Daily Number.
One thing worth paying attention to this week: the volume on the S&P 500.
It’s been heavy. The kind of heavy that often shows up near turning points. That doesn’t guarantee anything, of course—the week isn’t over. But if this holds and we close green, that’s a meaningful shift. Not noise. A real development
.
At that point, you can start entertaining the idea that maybe—just maybe—we’ve seen the worst. But here’s the key: you don’t act on that idea right away. You wait.
Why?
Because momentum is the compass. Not price alone. Not gut feel. Momentum.
We avoid a lot of bad trades by simply waiting for that confirmation. It’s not glamorous. It’s not exciting. But it works.
Bottoms are easy to spot in hindsight. In real time, they require patience. And patience is just risk management in disguise.
We’ve held the Swiss Franc since the start of the year, anchored by a clean setup, extreme short positioning and major support. It didn’t move right away—but patience often pays when the structure is right. Now, with a powerful breakout above 1.21, the market’s confirming our thesis.
We’re still holding.
At AAO, we trade every asset class—because there’s always a bull market somewhere.
Sometimes it’s in stocks, sometimes commodities, and sometimes—like now—it’s in currencies.
The key isn’t predicting where the action will be—it’s being open to where it shows up.
Opportunity doesn’t wear a label. It just leaves clues.
The U.S. Dollar Index is testing major support near the 100 level—an area that's held multiple times over the past two years.
Holding this zone is critical: a break could signal broad USD weakness, impacting everything from commodities to global equities.
This is a key inflection point.
Stay tuned…
Quick heads-up: I’ll be off-camera for about 10 days over the next couple of weeks. Newsletters will still be available daily.
Before that, I’d love to jump on a conference call and catch up with all of you—talk markets, share ideas, and hang out a bit.
🗓 This Sunday at 11am EST
Let’s talk markets (and more)!
See you then!
Against All Odds Research
Stay Connected:
YouTube: Against All Odds Research Channel (@againstalloddsresearch)
Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)
Substack: AAO Research
Support the Bees: Help save the native bees! Learn more and get involved here.
