I'm Buying: The Rotation That’s Just Beginning
I really like South America!
“In the long run, men hit only what they aim at. Therefore, they had better aim at something high.” — Henry David Thoreau
Every market cycle crowns new leaders and quietly buries the old ones. In 2025, the world crowned its own.
For us at Against All Odds Research, the two biggest themes this year have been commodity stocks and international equities — and they’ve done the heavy lifting for our performance. While most investors chased yesterday’s momentum in the U.S., the world’s next bull markets were forming in Chile, Brazil, Taiwan, South Korea, Poland, and Colombia.
The Global Rotation
We’ve been long emerging markets all year — and for good reason. South Korea is up ~97% YTD. Chile and Colombia have surged alongside the metals rebound. Taiwan continues to benefit from the AI supply chain. Poland, an early stage European reopening play, has been a quiet outperformer.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 hasn’t even cleared a 20% return. That’s not failure — it’s a signal. The world is rotating.
This dashboard shows the top-performing international ETFs — and the story is clear. Emerging markets are leading, Latin America is thriving, and Asia is reawakening.
“In trading, as in life, the crowd is always late. They buy the story long after the signal.” — Jesse Livermore
The Dollar and the Drift of Power
Every global bull market starts with one common thread — a weak dollar. Yes, the dollar will bounce; everything does. But bounces aren’t regime changes. The U.S. Dollar Index remains in a primary downtrend, down roughly 8% YTD. When the dollar weakens, liquidity loosens; when liquidity loosens, capital looks abroad. That’s how leadership changes hands.
From Silicon to Steel (Commodity Leadership)
The old leaders — the U.S. tech giants — are still strong, but leadership has broadened. Commodity stocks — from copper miners in Chile to steel producers in Brazil — have outperformed by wide margins. This is a re industrialization of performance — the capital cycle turning toward tangibles, energy, and real assets.
