Inflation Doesn’t Knock — It Sneaks In
And 2026 Is Where It Breaks Loose
The big picture — because inflation doesn’t start in the grocery aisle.
It starts in currencies and rates.
The U.S. dollar is rolling into a weak-dollar regime, and the yield curve is steepening. Historically, that combination has been one of the cleanest early signals for future inflation pressure — not immediate CPI spikes, but structural inflation building beneath the surface.
This is why we keep saying the same thing:
We are in a sticky inflationary environment, but not yet a headline inflation environment.
And that distinction matters more than most people realize.
Metals & Mining Just Had One of the Best Years Ever
Now let’s talk about what price is already telling us.
The metals and mining sector just logged one of the strongest years in its history. That’s not an opinion — that’s a fact that cannot be undone tomorrow morning.
Gold miners have been on an absolute tear. Large parts of the gold-mining complex are approaching +165% for the year. That’s not a trade. That’s a regime shift.
And yet, inflation “looks fine” if all you do is stare at CPI.
Why?
Because CPI is blind to the things that actually drive costs.
Why CPI Doesn’t See What’s Coming
This is the part almost nobody wants to explain honestly.
The inflation indexes are not weighted toward the commodities that sit at the foundation of the modern economy.
Gold & Silver
Not weighted in CPI.
Monetary metals with a premium already embedded.Copper
Used in everything: power grids, AI infrastructure, EVs, electronics, housing.
Not directly weighted in CPI.Aluminum & Steel
Core industrial inputs.
Not directly weighted in CPI.
The only major commodity that shows up directly?
Gasoline.
That’s it.
So when copper, steel, and aluminum surge — CPI barely flinches. Those price increases take time to work their way into cars, appliances, electronics, housing materials, and everyday goods.
Inflation doesn’t appear instantly.
It filters through the system.
And When Something Shows Up Too Loudly… They Remove It
If a commodity starts impacting CPI too much, it doesn’t get debated.
It gets reweighted away.
Coffee is the perfect recent example. After a major price spike, it was reweighted so aggressively that it barely registers in CPI anymore. Other commodities have quietly disappeared entirely over the years.
This isn’t accidental.
It’s how the system keeps inflation looking “contained.”
Which is exactly why watching monthly indexes instead of price is how you get blindsided.
The Market Is Already Voting
Now zoom out to the commodity complex.
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index is sitting in a multi-year Bollinger Band squeeze — the kind of compression you only see before large, sustained moves.
This isn’t noise.
This is stored energy.
Weak dollar.
Steepening curve.
Compressed commodities.
That’s the setup.
And when these squeezes resolve, they don’t resolve gently.
The Most Ignored Signal in the Entire Market
Now let’s talk about the thing that should be on every front page — but isn’t.
The metals and mining sector ETF — XME — is up nearly 90% year-to-date.
That’s almost 5× the return of the S&P 500.
Copper stocks are breaking out.
Steel stocks are breaking out.
Aluminum stocks are breaking out.
Chart: Rick @NullCharts on X
These are not “themes.”
These are inputs to inflation already moving.
So why the hell isn’t anyone covering this?
Because This Doesn’t Fit the Business Model
Here’s the uncomfortable truth.
Most large firms don’t make money helping you identify regime shifts.
They make money selling products.
Retirement accounts.
Model portfolios.
Low-volatility “solutions.”
They’ll happily charge you layers of fees until, over time, you underperform a money-market fund — while completely missing the cycles that actually move wealth.
Commodities don’t fit that model.
They’re volatile.
They’re cyclical.
They require risk management.
So they get ignored — until inflation is already obvious to everyone else.
Why 2026 Matters
Inflation doesn’t announce itself in CPI first.
It shows up first in:
Currencies
Rates
Commodities
Producers
That’s exactly what’s happening now.
The metals are moving.
The miners are confirming.
The dollar is weakening.
The curve is steepening.
The CRB is coiled.
This is how inflation cycles begin.
Quietly.
Unevenly.
And well before the data admits it.
Final Thought
If you wait for inflation to show up cleanly in CPI, you’ll miss the trade.
We don’t stare at indexes.
We watch price.
And price is already telling you that 2026 is shaping up to be something very different from what most people are positioned for.
We’ll keep flooding your inbox with real opportunities — across real assets, real sectors, and real global cycles.
Because by the time inflation looks obvious…
The move is already over.
Against All Odds Research
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Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)
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If I had a nickel for every time someone said buy nickel I'd have 5 cents maybe.