Against All Odds Research

Against All Odds Research

Inside the Agribusiness Trade: Where the Real Alpha Is

Jason Perz's avatar
Jason Perz
Jan 21, 2026
∙ Paid

We recently bought the Agribusiness ETF (MOO).

That trade checks the box for broad exposure to the agricultural value chain — fertilizers, equipment, inputs, processors. Because of that, I won’t be adding another ag trade to the portfolio right now.

But for those of you looking to push further down the risk curve and hunt for alpha inside agribusiness, this setup stands out.

That’s what these two charts are telling us.


The Macro Backdrop Still Works

The first chart shows MOO versus copper over the long run.

That relationship matters.

When copper is trending higher, it usually tells you:

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