Leaders and Laggards: Unwrapping Christmas Market Opportunities

Perma-Bullies, Yacht Clubbers and Doomers... Take control of your life.

You know, I’ve been reflecting on how incredible this journey has been lately. I’ve put out so many solid trade ideas this year, and it feels like we’ve all had a really strong run. But honestly, what hits me hardest, and what truly means the most are the messages from so many of you.

When you tell me how this service has helped you become better traders, make more money, and level up in your craft, it’s like… yeah, this is what I’ve always wanted from this.

When I kicked off this service, I told you all from the start: my primary job is trading. That’s my core. But I started this because, frankly, I was over it. Over the noise, the grifters, the performers.

You know the ones I’m talking about:

• The permabullies who act like the market only ever goes up.

• The yacht clubbers flashing the dream lifestyle as bait.

• The doomers, always peddling the next apocalyptic crash that never seems to come.

It’s all smoke and mirrors, great for clicks but terrible for your P&L. If anything, it costs people real money, and worse, it costs them hope.

So here’s what I do. I focus on delivering actionable, honest ideas. Sometimes we sit tight all summer waiting for the right trade (remember this past summer?). Other times, I might bore you to death harping on risk management, position sizing, or staying disciplined.

But guess what? That’s where most traders blow it. That’s the unsexy stuff that keeps you in the game.

And yeah, we talk about the mental side, too. Because trading isn’t just numbers on a screen; it’s a grind that messes with your head. It’s something I’ve wrestled with for a long time and still do.

Mental health? It’s the most important part of this whole game. And being open about it? That’s what makes it a little easier to manage.

“Pain shared is pain lessened.”

The holidays are a tough time for a lot of people. Families drift apart. Loved ones leave us. And sometimes, the ghosts of what we’ve lost feel like they’re sitting in the room with us. I know that feeling all too well, it’s been a companion for most of my life.

But despite all of that, this work? Showing up, sharing honest insights, support from my family and helping good people become better traders? It makes it all worth it. Every bit of it.

So thank you, for the trust, the conversations, and for being part of this. Let’s keep building something real.

A couple things to look at in to year end. After the holiday I have a lot more…

The dollar tends to decline 91% of the time heading into year end. This is a key part of the gold narrative I've been emphasizing.

Sam Gatlin put together this chart for the Gold Rush of the dollar and gold to highlight an important point: gold has shown remarkable resilience despite the dollar's strength. If the dollar starts to roll over heading into year-end, we could see a significant rally in the next few days.

This could provide a boost not only to gold but also to stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

If you want Bitcoin to move higher, it’s straightforward: the dollar needs to fall. When that happens, equities are likely to move higher as well.

Here’s the macro picture…

Financials have cooled off a bit over the last month but are still very strong and the technology sectors are still leading the way.

Also, I made this pie chart to show you how much of the US stock market is weighted in technology.

XLC (communications), XLY (consumer discretionary), and XLK (technology) are all heavily influenced by technology. XLC’s largest component is Meta (formerly Facebook), XLY’s is Amazon, and XLK’s is Apple.

While I remain long on software, technology, and semiconductors (though we’re nearing an exit), I believe we’re closer than ever to a shift in the market regime. To be clear, I’m not saying big tech is going anywhere, despite what some analysts might claim. It’s not.

What I’m saying is that the companies outside of traditional big tech are likely to grow in influence and represent a larger share of the U.S. stock market moving forward. Investors should start preparing for this shift.

We will also see a shift in to different country ETFs.

From All Star Charts ETF Power Rankings:

Some countries focused on industrials, financials, and energy could become major players in the coming years. Yes, I know energy has been through the wringer, but for those of you who’ve been with me for a while, you know how this goes:

• Back in early 2020, I was relentless about commodities, and it paid off with triple-digit returns.

• In 2021, I was pounding the table to hold our long bond position, which nearly hit 200% returns.

• In 2022, I was all in on shorting every currency I could find against the dollar. In a year where stocks and bonds were down 20% AAO Futures was up almost 30%.

• In 2023, when everyone thought I’d lost it, I went broadly long stocks and the rally lasted all year long. AAO had a 73% return.

• This year, while no one wanted anything to do with gold or silver, I stayed max long most of the year, adding soft commodities and stock sectors to help deliver a 70% return.

I get it, I can sound a little crazy at times, and yes, I’m often very early. But here’s the thing: being early doesn’t cost anything if you only pull the trigger when the signals say buy. And that’s exactly what I do, every time.

I want to explore my thoughts and “predictions” for next year after January first.

For now, ride the trends until the end when it bends!

Against All Odds Research

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• YouTube: Against All Odds Research Channel (@againstalloddsresearch)

• Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)

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