Lumber’s Still Sleeping. That Won’t Last.
📈 Homebuilders are at the highs—lumber hasn’t moved. That divergence is your setup.
Homebuilders have already made their move. The $XHB ETF is bottoming and now it is above it’s 200 day moving average.
But lumber—the foundation of what they build—hasn’t followed.
That divergence won’t stick.
Lumber futures ($LB_F) have flatlined while builders rip. But if this is a real global growth cycle—and I think it is—then lumber needs to catch up. You don’t build homes, infrastructure, or factories without wood. This isn’t about sentiment. It’s about inputs.
From age 16 to 25, I spent some time building and tearing down bike and skate parks. To build something to ride or for some extra cash—just wood, sweat, and stubbornness. Every screw mattered and every board had to be reused. You didn’t throw out plywood—you salvaged it.
Wood always mattered. Still does.
Today, the world runs on cardboard. Every Amazon delivery is a small bet on the lumber market. Every renovation, every supply chain shift, every real economy expansion—built on trees, mills, and time.
The chart is setting up. The homebuilders are already pricing in what’s coming. Lumber hasn’t yet.
But it will. And when it moves, I want to own it.
The Bull Market Beneath the Surface
Look deeper.
It’s not just tech and Bitcoin anymore. Metals & Mining, Industrials, Semiconductors, and Global Infrastructure are leading. Not lagging—leading.
Just look at the scans.