Nothing Stops This Train
The Return of the Commodity Cycle: Why Q4 2025 Is Just the Beginning
Once the reaction starts, there’s no going back. Just ask Walter White.
In 1418, Filippo Brunelleschi was handed an impossible task: build the largest dome in the world without flying buttresses. Florence had waited over a century to cap its cathedral, and no one knew how to do it. Except Brunelleschi.
He didn’t invent new materials or wait for permission. He studied Roman engineering, trusted geometry, and quietly began construction. It took sixteen years, but the dome still stands—an enduring monument to human vision in the face of collective doubt.
That’s how I see this commodity cycle.
Everyone’s waiting for some grand moment—a Fed pivot, a shock rate cut, a currency intervention—to “unlock” the next phase. But the market doesn’t need permission. It’s already building. Quietly. Methodically. The train has left the station.
And like Brunelleschi’s dome, the structure is already self supporting.
Cycles Don’t Break — They Mature
There’s a persistent belief that the Fed can end this cycle by flipping a switch—cutting rates, initiating yield curve control, or magically restoring stability.
But the data is clear:
The dollar is rolling over—lower highs, weaker trend, and a growing chorus of policy divergence.
International equities are showing relentless relative strength. Every pullback in the U.S. is being absorbed abroad. This is not rotation within a market—it’s rotation between regimes.
Gold is sitting near fresh all-time highs. There was no blowoff top. Just consolidating strength.
Copper never broke 4.25. Every selloff stalled right where it needed to. This isn’t a fluke—it’s a floor built by global demand. However. Copper miners have hit a new 52 week high.
Earnings are rising—not in absolute surprise, but on a rate-of-change basis. That’s what the market trades on. And right now, it's telling you the future is more resilient than consensus believes. (Energy and material stocks have only started reporting, I will update everyone when the earnings season is over.)
Energy stocks are coiling again. Underowned, undervalued, and hated. I am not fully bullish on energy yet. But this would be confirmation of the cycle starting.
As the historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr. once wrote, “History is to the nation as memory is to the individual. Without memory, there is no identity.”
The same applies to markets. Investors forget that commodity supercycles don’t end with a press conference. They end when capital exhausts itself, not when policymakers throw a tantrum.
Brunelleschi and the Blueprint of Belief
Let’s go back to that dome in Florence.
The genius wasn’t just the architecture—it was the belief. Brunelleschi faced ridicule. He was mocked for suggesting he could build something invisible to the eye, held together by self-reinforcing pressure. But he understood something deeper than material or technique. He understood timing, sequencing, and momentum.
That’s where we are today.
This commodity cycle is not running on hype—it’s running on math, on structure, and on deeply embedded economic rotation. The architecture is visible in capital flows, price action, and global liquidity.
Victor Sperandeo once said, “The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money.”
Emotional discipline is exactly what this phase requires. You can’t chase every growth bounce or rate headline. You have to understand the blueprint: liquidity, inflation, capital flows, and scarcity.
“Nothing Stops This Train”
This phrase isn’t bravado—it’s a recognition of regime inertia.
Cycles don’t end because of narrative. They end because capital exhausts itself. And we are nowhere near that exhaustion. In fact, we’re still early in the second act.
The world is shifting away from dollar dominance and toward real assets, emerging markets, and alternative stores of value. Not because of ideology—but because of necessity.
Howard Marks put it plainly: “The biggest investing errors come not from factors that are informational or analytical, but from those that are psychological.”
That’s what we’re seeing now. Psychological resistance to accepting that the cycle has already changed. That it’s not only about low rates—it’s about energy, metals, agriculture, and global rotation.
And if the dollar does break lower from here—which looks increasingly likely—that’s not a tailwind. That’s jet fuel.
We Didn’t Flinch — That’s Why We’re Ahead
Since the beginning of the year, we’ve stuck to this core thesis:
That the real rotation would be international, not domestic.
That precious metals would lead, not collapse.
That gold, copper, and (One day)energy were not done—just digesting.
We didn’t chase the growth bounce. We didn’t rotate into defensives. We followed price. We followed flow. And we trusted the structure.
That’s why our portfolios are up, while so many funds are stuck in laggards, trapped by old narratives and confused by new leadership.
Because we knew the dome was already being built.
And when you recognize the architecture of a real cycle, you don’t need permission to act—you just need patience to stay with it.
Q4 Is the Confirmation Phase
Brunelleschi didn’t finish the dome in a day. It rose slowly, brick by brick, year after year. But at some point, it became obvious to the entire city that it was going to work.
That’s Q4 2025.
This is when the structure becomes visible. This is when the breakout in gold is no longer “interesting”—it’s obvious. When international equities aren’t “catching up”—they’re leading. When copper isn’t bouncing—it’s running. When energy isn’t hated—it’s hunted.
This is when the narrative starts to catch up with the trend.
One Last Word from History
John Maynard Keynes once warned, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” But the inverse is also true:
The market can remain suppressed long before consensus agrees.
And that’s what we’re betting on. Not a fluke. A real, structural, global shift.
We don’t need to be early anymore. We’re already in it.
Now we just need to finish building the dome.
📈 Want These Trades in Your Inbox?
We didn’t just talk about the commodity cycle—we traded it:
Feeder Cattle: +30.05%
Lean Hogs: +33.86%
Silver (SLV): +30.55%
Gold Miners (GDX): +68.39%
Junior Miners (GDXJ): +65.02%
MAG Silver: +62.73%
Wheaton Precious Metals: +65.39%
Sibanye Stillwater: +91.91%
Brazil (EWZ): +24.47%
Colombia (COLO): +37.03%
Chile (ECH): +22.74%
Poland (EPOL): +59.79%
Italy (EWI): +39.86%
And let’s not forget the 5x and 10x option trades in precious metals that paid off while others were still doubting the breakout.
These aren’t backtests—they’re real trades from our live portfolios.
👉 Join Against All Odds Research to get the next wave of signals before they become headlines.
Against All Odds Research
Stay Connected:
YouTube: Against All Odds Research Channel (@againstalloddsresearch)
Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)
Substack: AAO Research
Support the Bees: Help save the native bees! Learn more and get involved here.
