Objects in the Rearview Mirror are Closer than they Appear

Oil is close to a bottom? Bonds have bottomed? Let's dig in!

If oil holds this level bonds have a problem!

Oil is holding and bouncing off of the 65 level. At the same time, we saw a rate cut.

This week the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points.

What the hell does that mean for the futures market?

Looking at the two year yield and the fed funds rate we can get a better perspective on why.

They had no choice. At this point the two year yield has fallen so fast that there is no way that they could have gotten ahead of it without cutting rates 75-100bps.

This is an interesting place to be in because we are at a major inflection point.

Either there is a black swan lurking behind the corner and bonds will continue higher or the market will continue higher.

I am still betting on the market going even higher as you all know.

Either way I will follow the price action. As you see, we are long bonds, gold and stocks…

The 2 year is hinting at the possibility of a black swan but sometimes the market gets ahead of itself. It says we are heading in to a recession when the market is in a strong trend or it says that we are headed in to a goldilocks scenario when we are not.

Price action is how we get paid but it is not the truth. Saying price action is the truth is like saying that group think is how we should all digest information. Price action is the crowd.

We need to tune out the noise but follow price because it is how we get paid.

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I noticed so many people talking about the end of gold, silver and the bull market here because of the way the market reacted on Wednesday.

Absolutly, none of these charts are pointing lower. The one thing we know is that anything can happen. Closely behind it is that trends exist and persist. An object that is in motion typically stays in motion unless it runs in to a fucking wall.

At the moment, I can’t see a wall in sight so I want to stay long.

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A sweet trade…

Sugar is making a move above it’s 200 day MA and closed at a 100 day high.

For those of you who are new here we set buy stops before the trades.

Look here for our original entry signal in sugar.

Long term swing traders could still enter this trade here.

I have a bunch of presentations this week that I will share with you all. For now here is some slides of the charts I used from my presentation.

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/10xQD2lh0xKm9hpczW360ZymGZdq4MPKM0gTdRbmy2o4/pub?start=false&loop=false&delayms=15000

I share so openly with you all because I think of you all as friends. I have gotten so much love and support from you guys.

I just want to say thank you for your kind words.

This weekend things will slow down and we will get more information out. Either way our last posts have nailed the market environment lately.

Against All Odds Research

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