Obsessed? You’re Probably Missing It

Why Over-Focusing on Charts Blinds You

Apr 30, 2025

It’s important not to be narrow minded about where to find ideas for trading strategies. Sometimes being creative about where you find your ideas is just as important as the idea itself.

I can draw insight to apply to my trading from anywhere and anyone in my life.

This week I gained said insight from my physical therapy: the more your eyes fixate, the more off balance you get.

Your eyes lock in. Your brain tries to compensate. But instead of helping, it makes things worse. You lose context. You lose rhythm. You lose your footing.

I’ve learned that the hard way — through hours of re training my nervous system, one exhausting rep at a time.

And it’s the same with trading.

Staring too closely at a chart, obsessing over every tick, dissecting every candle — it doesn’t make you more informed. It just makes you more reactive.

You miss the broader move. You confuse noise for signal. You build conviction where there should be none.

The market, like the body, is about orientation. Big picture over pinpoint. Structure over fixation.

And just like my body needs time to rewire its eyes to my brain, sometimes the best thing I can do for my portfolio is step back — zoom out — and let price tell the story.

Because it’s not about what you see when you look harder.
It’s about what you understand when you look wider.

This is why at AAO, we always start with understanding macro effects — and only then do we zoom in.

The world is a beautiful place.
But you’d have to step back to see it.
And believe it.

Zooming Out Isn’t Optional. It’s the Only Way to See What Actually Matters.

When you're deep in the market — scanning headlines, checking tickers, reading tweets — everything feels urgent.

But urgency is a liar.

This is why we zoom out. Because the big stuff never shouts. It just builds.

Look at this chart.

It compares three major asset classes — bonds, equities, and gold — each relative to commodities. It’s telling you one story:

When the world shifts toward tangible stuff — energy, metals, food — everything else gets repriced.

Let’s break it down:

Blue (Bonds:Commodities): This shows how bonds are performing relative to commodities.
Red (NYSE:Commodities): Equities vs. commodities.
Gold (Gold:Commodities): Even gold, the classic inflation hedge, measured against a broader basket of commodities.

Now look closer. Every major top in these ratios — marked with blue arcs — aligns with a major reversal in the Fed Funds Rate below.

When bonds and stocks outperform commodities too much, it signals complacency. The assumption that deflation, low rates, and financial asset dominance will last forever.

But it never does.

Each time the Fed loosens — like in 2000, 2006, and 2020 — commodities eventually take the wheel. Bonds roll over. Equities fade. Gold catches fire.

You don’t see that flipping channels on CNBC.
You see it when you zoom out — when you listen to the ratios, not just the prices.

Right now, that red line (equities vs. commodities) is elevated.
Gold vs. commodities (gold line) just made new highs.
Bonds vs. commodities (blue line)? Still flat on the floor.

This isn’t just rotation. It’s regime change.

The next decade won’t look like the last one.

Not because we want it to. But because the market speaks and we listen.

Remember above all else: Gold, rings the dinner bell!