October Fear vs October Truth
Crash headlines sell, but the data shows the strongest seasonal stretch.
Most people look at the stock market like it’s a collection of random tickers. Up a percent here, down a percent there. They obsess over headlines, Fed meetings, and whatever noise CNBC is pushing that day.
But that’s not how a macro trader sees the market. A macro trader looks at the big picture. You want to know what’s moving, what’s not, and where the money is flowing. That’s how you avoid getting caught chasing bullshit narratives and instead catch the real waves—the ones that turn into 5–10x trades.
Let’s break it down, chart by chart, and show why the data says this market has more gas in the tank.
Seasonality: October Isn’t Just Crashes
Everyone’s scared of October. “Crash month.” 1929, 1987, 2008. You hear it every damn year.
But here’s the truth: October has produced way more bottoms than crashes. And more importantly, October kicks off one of the strongest seasonal stretches in the stock market.
Look at the seasonality chart for small caps (IWM). September is garbage, no surprise there. But October through December? That’s where the stats flip. 64%, 80%, and 64% positive months in a row. That’s small cap season.
We’ve been long small caps already, and this is where it gets good. While everyone is shitting themselves over some “October crash” that may or may not come, we’re looking at the historical data and saying: this is when you want to lean in.
Breadth: Bullish, Not Broken
Now, forget the fear porn for a second. Look at breadth.
The percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average is sitting solidly in bullish territory. The NYSE advance-decline line is trending higher. Even the 50-day breadth looks fine.
If this was the top, you’d see deterioration everywhere—breadth rolling over, leadership narrowing, the internals screaming “danger.” But that’s not happening. Instead, the internals are telling you this market is still strong under the hood.
While Twitter’s yelling “top” and YouTube’s peddling another crash documentary, the data is saying not yet.
Sector Rotation: Follow the Leaders
This is where macro traders really make their money: watching the sensitive sectors.
Look at the dashboard of market-leading groups. Semiconductors (SOXX) are still powering higher. That tells you risk appetite is alive and well. If chips are strong, the bull market isn’t dead. Period.
Metals & Mining (XME) is another one to watch—it’s a commodity play, and it’s been ripping. That tells you money isn’t just hiding in tech, it’s rotating into hard assets. Industrials, infrastructure, even biotech are confirming.
If the economy was rolling over, these charts wouldn’t look like this. The tape is telling you risk-on is still in play.
International Flows: Global Liquidity On the Move
Now zoom out further. The International Leadership Dashboard makes it obvious: money isn’t just moving inside the U.S.—it’s flowing across the globe.
China tech, Asia 50, South Korea, Peru, South Africa, even frontier stuff like Africa ETFs are outperforming. EM speculative tech is alive.
This is what happens when liquidity moves. It doesn’t just bid up the S&P 500; it spills into markets all over the world. If you’re only looking at the Dow, you’re missing the whole damn point.
Macro traders catch these waves by watching flows globally, not just at home. And right now, the flows are telling you this is a global move, not a local one.