Party Like it's 1999... Again
There are times when markets stop whispering and start screaming.
Right now, they’re yelling one thing loud and clear: this setup looks like a year end face ripper.
Paul Tudor Jones said it best recently: “Party like it’s 1999.”
He wasn’t calling for euphoria. He was reminding everyone that even in late cycle markets, you can still get one last explosive run before the music changes. That feels like where we are today.
I’m not calling the end of the bull market this year, but if we don’t rally into December, that would be a problem. Because structurally, sentiment, positioning, and price all point in one direction: higher.
The Data Doesn’t Lie: Year End Rallies Are the Norm
Since 1971, the NASDAQ has rallied from its October low to the year end close nearly 90% of the time. (Data: Stock Traders Almanac)
The average gain is 9.6%, with a median of 8.5%.
The best years were wild: 54.5% in 2001, 42.8% in 2017, and 39.2% in 2004.
That’s not random seasonality. It’s a behavioral pattern.
By October, pessimism peaks, positioning is light, and fund managers are desperate to chase performance before the calendar turns. The path of least resistance becomes higher.
This year, the setup fits the mold perfectly.
Sentiment has been washed out.
Inflation fears are fading.
Liquidity indicators are quietly improving.
The market’s pain trade is higher.
If we don’t get the usual year end squeeze, that tells you something deeper has broken.
Small Caps: The Real Tell
Small caps have been the forgotten soldiers of 2025.
While the NASDAQ grabbed headlines, IWM spent most of the year basing near major resistance. Now it’s pressing that line again, a breakout level we’ve been watching for months.
If IWM can clear this zone and hold, it confirms what the data has hinted at all year: the global reflation trade isn’t over.
Small caps thrive when growth expectations are rising and liquidity expands. They’re the market’s risk barometer, the canary that sings before the rest of the market catches on.
Right now, that canary isn’t dying. It’s starting to sing again.
Micro Caps Ready to Follow
If small caps are waking up, micro caps are the spark.
IWC is pressing against multi year resistance, the same zone that capped rallies in 2021 and 2022. Each time, sellers defended it. This time looks different.
The broader liquidity backdrop is improving, not tightening.
The Fed may not be cutting yet, but credit spreads, global PMIs, and the dollar all suggest we’re moving from contraction to stabilization.
Historically, that’s when the smallest, most levered names start to fly.
Micro caps are the leverage trade on U.S. growth, and they’re coiled tight.
Copper Says Reflation Is Alive
While everyone was busy declaring the global economy dead after copper’s 20% one-day crash, the metal quietly did something bullish: it held trend.
Look at the weekly chart.
Every major pullback since 2023 has found support along the same rising line. Each time, sentiment collapsed, and each time, copper came back stronger.
Now it’s pushing right back into the $5 zone, the top of a multi-year range that has defined this entire cycle.
Break that level, and you’re not just talking about a commodity trade, you’re talking about a macro shift.
Copper is the heartbeat of global growth.
When it holds up while equities base and rates stabilize, that’s the market telling you the reflation theme isn’t dead. It’s recharging.
Copper Miners Confirm the Move
The miners tell the truth before the metal does.
And COPX is knocking on the same door it’s been hitting since 2011, around $62. That line has stopped every rally for nearly four years.
This time, the setup is different. The pattern is tighter, the lows are higher, and the fundamentals are aligning.
Supply constraints from Chile and Peru.
Strong demand from AI driven data centers and grid expansion.
China quietly adding inventory as it stabilizes property markets.
When you combine the structural story with the technical breakout, you get what every trend follower dreams of: price and narrative finally agreeing.
Everything Lines Up
Here’s the thing about markets: they rhyme, even if they never repeat.
This setup feels like one of those late 90s windows where growth, liquidity, and sentiment all turn together.
Back then, traders called it irrational exuberance.
Today, it’s quantitative exhaustion — too much cash on the sidelines, too many people hedged and no one believes in this rally.
The result is a market that wants to rip higher into year end just to prove everyone wrong.
Party Like It’s 1999, Responsibly
The 90s analog isn’t just nostalgia. It’s pattern recognition.
In 1999, the NASDAQ doubled from its October lows before the ultimate top. That move was driven by optimism, liquidity, and disbelief. The same ingredients are back today, but in a world flooded with fiscal stimulus, AI spending, and hard-asset rotation.
That doesn’t mean we’re heading for a bubble. It means the market still has fuel, and denying it is expensive.
The key is staying disciplined. Buy the breakouts you’ve been waiting for, not the noise.
As the saying goes, get yourself sober.
Sober enough to see the setup clearly, and to ride it without getting drunk on greed.
The Bottom Line
Everything from the data to the charts to the narrative points the same way.
The NASDAQ’s year end pattern is as strong as ever.
Small caps and micro caps are breaking out together.
Copper and the miners are confirming reflation.
Add it up, and you have the perfect recipe for a Q4 melt-up, the kind of move that punishes the hedged and rewards the bold.
So yes, maybe it is time to party like it’s 1999.
Just make sure you’re sober enough to leave the party before the lights come on.
The moves are already happening. Don’t wait for the headlines — see what we’re buying, where we’re positioned, and why.
Against All Odds Research
Stay Connected:
YouTube: Against All Odds Research Channel (@againstalloddsresearch)
Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)
Substack: AAO Research
Support the Bees: Help save the native bees! Learn more and get involved here.
Next week we have Nvidia GTC, FOMC, MSFT META GOOG AAPL AMZN, Trump/Xi. What could possibly happen?
Great read again, thanks! Btw; The ALB trade took off today!