Portfolio Review: Either You Adapt or You Die.
Biggie knew it. Now the markets are proving it.
“Back in the day, there was no guns blazing… now everybody’s waving.”
— The Notorious B.I.G.
That line hits harder than any economic forecast.
Biggie wasn’t just talking about the streets — he was describing how fast the world changes, and how brutal it can be for anyone still living by the old rules.
That’s the market right now.
The environment has shifted, and most investors haven’t caught up.
They’re still playing defense in a world that’s rewarding offense.
At Against All Odds Research, we’ve been massively outperforming because we recognized early that things done changed. The liquidity regime, the inflation structure, the yield dynamics — all of it has flipped.
The game now is not about comfort. It’s about recognition.
Small Caps: New Development, New Highs
Let’s start with one of the most important charts of the year — IWM (Small Caps).
For the first time in years, small caps have broken out to new highs. This is not just another rally — it’s confirmation that breadth is expanding across the market.
When the smaller names start to lead, it signals something bigger: risk appetite is back.
Small caps tend to move ahead of liquidity turns and inflationary expansions. When you see IWM clearing key resistance, you’re not just seeing a breakout — you’re seeing the market’s internal engine turn back on.
Bitcoin: Liquidity’s Pulse
Bitcoin finally broke above that key 120K level — a critical threshold we’ve been watching for months.
This breakout matters not because of price alone, but because of what it represents: liquidity is hanging around.
Bitcoin has always been a pure expression of risk sentiment and capital flows. When liquidity dries up, it gets slaughtered. When liquidity expands — as it quietly is now — Bitcoin breathes first.
We’ve traded around this setup before. The higher highs and shallow pullbacks tell us: liquidity’s not leaving, it’s rotating.
Silver: New Monthly Highs — Two Years in the Making
This is the trade no one believed in.
Silver ($XAGUSD) just printed new monthly closing highs — something that’s been building for two years.
We’ve been long since before it was popular, adding exposure through SLV, SIL, and individual miners while sentiment was at rock bottom.
Everyone wanted to own AI stocks.
We wanted to own what powers the AI revolution — metals, energy, and materials.
Now silver’s breakout confirms what we’ve been saying: the commodity bull isn’t a headline — it’s a structural rotation.
Palladium: From Forgotten to Front Page
Palladium has been one of the most interesting setups of the year.
We were already long, but we issued another buy alert yesterday — right before it ripped higher and suddenly everyone started talking about it.
That’s what being early looks like.
Palladium has broken through key resistance near 1300 after a multi-year base. The green arc at the bottom shows a massive rounding bottom pattern forming — classic early-cycle behavior in metals that lag gold and silver.
Everyone’s now asking “What’s going on with palladium?”
We were asking that question six months ago.
The lesson: We want to know things before, not after.
Metals & Mining: A New All-Time High
Here’s your proof: the S&P Metals & Mining ETF ($XME) just hit an all-time high.
This is leadership.
When metals and miners are breaking out, it’s not just a sector story — it’s a macro signal. It tells you that inflationary demand, industrial production, and global capital flows are reorienting around hard assets again.
We said this cycle would rhyme with the early 2000s last year — commodities, emerging markets, and real assets leading while the dollar fades.
This is it, playing out live.
Emerging Markets: The Sleeping Giant Awakens
If there’s one chart that could redefine the next 5 years of global markets, it’s this one.
The Emerging Markets ETF ($EEM) is on the cusp of a major breakout, testing levels it hasn’t seen since 2007.
China is leading the move, but Latin America is quietly powering the foundation. Brazil, Chile, and Mexico are making moves higher, riding the commodity and energy tailwind.
This is the beginning of a major capital rotation away from U.S. dominance. When EM breaks out, it rewrites the global investment landscape.
We’ve seen this before — early 2000s, same pattern. U.S. peaks, dollar rolls over, global reflation takes off.
This isn’t the end of the U.S. story — it’s the start of a global one.
“Things Done Changed” — The Market Version
Biggie’s message was simple: the rules changed, and the world didn’t tell you.
“Either you slingin’ crack rock, or you got a wicked jump shot.”
Translation: survival requires an edge. In the market, your edge is recognizing when the environment shifts before everyone else.
That’s exactly what we’ve done all year.
Gold: broke out before anyone admitted inflation wasn’t transitory.
Energy: coiling for its next leg higher while investors remain underweight.
Metals & Miners: printing new highs while analysts are still writing recession notes.
Emerging Markets: stealth leaders of the next decade.
Bitcoin: proof that global liquidity isn’t contracting — it’s repositioning.
This Is the Edge
While others keep trading the last cycle, we’re trading the new one.
The Futures Portfolio is up double digits.
The Thematic ETF Portfolio continues to crush benchmarks.
Our long-term positioning remains aligned with the reflation regime — not the disinflation narrative that’s already dead.
We’re not guessing.
We’re listening to what the market’s screaming.
And it’s saying the same thing Biggie said 30 years ago:
“Things done changed.”
Bottom Line
Small Caps → Breaking out. Risk-on.
Bitcoin → Liquidity proxy alive and well.
Silver → Two-year base resolved higher.
Palladium → Early-cycle breakout underway.
Metals & Mining → All-time highs = structural shift.
Emerging Markets → Next decade’s trade is forming.
When you see all of these charts align, that’s not noise.
That’s the new regime.
Final Thought
You can’t survive this market with an old playbook.
Adaptation isn’t optional — it’s the whole game.
We’re not chasing narratives. We’re tracking flows, trends, and leadership.
Because the only traders who make it through shifts like this are the ones who can see the change while everyone else denies it.
Adapt or die.
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