Portfolio Review: Iran, Oil & the Commodity War
Take a hard look at this chart.
Gold vs commodities.
NYSE vs commodities.
Bonds vs commodities.
For years, capital has oscillated between financial assets and hard assets. When these lines rise, it means stocks, gold, or bonds are outperforming the broader commodity complex.
But structurally?
These stock ratio look tired.
They look heavy.
And I believe they are about to start heading lower.
If that happens, it means one thing:
Commodities are about to violently outperform.
Not just bonds — that one feels obvious.
Likely stocks as well.
And if we truly are entering a strong energy bull phase, gold may slow down — but energy will be the torque.
Bonds vs Commodities
Look at the bond line. It’s compressing in a tightening wedge.
If that resolves lower, bonds lose relative strength fast.
In an inflationary or supply shock environment, bonds do not win.
Commodities do.
And right now, I see very little evidence that the structural pressures driving energy, shipping, metals, and agriculture are going away.
Stocks vs Commodities
Stocks have dominated since 2023.
But if this ratio rolls over in a sustained way, it signals something larger:
Capital rotation.
We’ve already seen early signs. Energy leadership. Base metals strength. Agricultural resilience. Volatility perking up beneath the surface.
This is what I’ve been calling the Commodity War.
Not just price action — but global positioning.
Gold vs Commodities
Gold is interesting.
If energy truly enters a powerful structural bull market, gold will likely participate — but it may lag the broader commodity complex.
Strong energy cycles historically create inflation pressure that lifts the entire hard asset space.
This is not a gold only moment.
This is bigger than that.
I’ve Seen This Movie Before
On Friday I talked about calling the oil bottom.
Those of you who were with me in 2020 remember.
I was aggressively short oil into the collapse — into negative prices in April 2020.
Then I flipped.
October–November 2020, I turned structurally bullish energy and rode it into the 2022 blow-off top.
After the 2026 bottom, we stepped back in aggressively again.
This isn’t emotional.
This is cyclical.
And tonight I’ll be sitting down with Kevin Green from Schwab to go through what’s moving this entire event and how I see it unfolding.
The Commodity War
We are in the middle of what I call a commodity war.
Control of energy.
Control of ports.
Control of supply chains.
Control of industrial metals.
Here’s the uncomfortable part.
Some people believe the 2020s will be looked back on as the early stages of a broader global conflict — not necessarily tanks first, but economic warfare first.
Books like The Grand Chessboard by Zbigniew Brzezinski and Confessions of an Economic Hit Man by John Perkins lay out frameworks for how economic leverage, debt structures, and geopolitical pressure shape regime outcomes.
Whether you agree with their perspectives or not is irrelevant.
What matters is understanding how power flows through commodities.
There are often three escalating stages in geopolitical pressure:
Financial leverage and debt dependency
Covert destabilization
Direct military pressure
I’m not here to debate morality.
I’m here to recognize that commodities sit at the center of global power.
And Iran is not Venezuela.
Iran sits along the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most critical chokepoints in the world, where roughly 20% of global oil consumption flows through daily. It controls strategic ports along the Persian Gulf and holds some of the largest proven oil and gas reserves globally.
That matters.
If tensions escalate in regions that control critical shipping lanes and energy flows, commodities don’t drift higher quietly.
They spike.
Violently.
What I Expect
I believe these ratio lines are about to break down.
If they do:
Commodities outperform bonds decisively.
Commodities likely outperform equities.
Energy leads.
The broader hard asset complex follows.
This is not a call for panic.
It’s a call for awareness.
We will cover all of this tonight.
But understand this:
If the commodity complex is about to have a violent awakening, it won’t be subtle.
And when these ratios roll over, you want to already be positioned as we are — not reacting after the move.
