Portfolio Review: The Reflation Playbook

You’ve seen this movie before. Here’s the playbook for what comes next.

No noise.
No headlines.
No distractions.
Just signal.

I love holidays.

Yesterday, John Netto—one of the Unknown Market Wizards—talked about regimes.
And if you’ve been around me long enough, you know that regime models are my thing.

Right now, all signs are pointing to one of my favorites: Reflation.

You’ve seen this play before:

• Gold, silver, and miners start to wake up.

• The dollar slips or the Fed loosens.

• Global growth ticks up.

• EM starts to outperform.

• Copper joins the party.

• Oil follows.

  

It’s the cycle within the cycle.

But here’s the key:
This is a framework—not a forecast. I only take the trades when price confirms. No signal, no entry.

So if you're seeing growth and inflation both accelerating, here's the Reflation Playbook:

• Risk > Defense

• High Beta > Low Beta

• Growth > Value

• Cyclicals > Defensives

• Small & Mid Caps > Large Caps

• International > U.S.

• EM > DM

• Spreads > Treasuries

• Short rates > Long Rates

• High Yield > Investment Grade

• Industrial Commodities > Energy > Ags

• FX > USD

Watch the signals. Respect the rotation. Let price lead.

Because when you know the regime, the rest gets a lot easier.