Reflation, Currency Bounces, and a Dollar Top: What Traders Need to Know

Positioning for a Dollar Top: What the Signals Are Telling Us

I’m not much of a reversal hunter. And I’m definitely not out here hunting for ticks.

What I am hunting for is big moves. The kind that matter.

And when it comes to the biggest macro input for any model? It’s always the dollar. No contest.

Here’s the thing about the dollar: it tends to fall in reflationary environments. Pair that with the bullish positioning I’m seeing in other currencies, and you start to connect the dots.

Green bottoming signals are popping up all over: EUR, GBP, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD, MXN—you name it.

What’s that telling us? These currencies are ready to bounce.

The dollar? It’s topping.

Now’s the time to pick your spots. Which ones are your favorites? I’ll be honest—I’m not a fan of most of these countries’ economies. But it’s not about that.

It’s about the market environment, and right now, everything is screaming “Dollar Top.”

Meanwhile, I’ve been grinding on new system codes. (Here is the environment)