Reflections: The Last Weak Dollar Cycle Was Over 20 Years Ago—It’s Happening Again

The Uranium Trade is Here—And CCJ is Leading the Charge

A weak dollar environment? I haven’t seen one in over 20 years.

Sure, the dollar has slowed down here and there—2017-18, late 2020-21—but nothing like a true downtrend. Look at the chart below.

The last real decline was post-dot-com crash in 2000.

The entire market has been built on a strong dollar, a strong bond market. That’s been the playbook.

Weak dollar plays like commodity ETFs have continued to vanish over the years as the market was in a disinflationary environment until 2020.

Chart of cocoa from @Nullcharts

But cycles shift.

And here’s the thing—what’s been holding back the commodity super cycle for the last two years? The dollar.

Bonds have stepped aside.

But the dollar is still hanging up there.

I keep looking at this market and seeing the 2000s all over again. Remember the silver chart? The valuation charts I keep bringing up? Same story.

Now check out this Debt to GDP chart. Yields climbed for 40 years because of it.

Why does that matter?

Because there’s only one real way to bring down debt—inflation.

So if the Fed stays dovish while markets keep ripping to new highs, traders need to focus on what actually matters.

The market is giving us liquidity.

The setup today mirrors the 2000s.

And here’s what I want traders to understand—this is the big idea.

There are moments in history when the broad market gets crushed while other asset classes thrive.

SPX compounded at 0.27% during that time. Oil? 30% per year. A 1,000% return over the same stretch.

I don’t know what the future holds. But I do know this—assuming the future will look just like the past is a great way to lose money.

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CCJ: The Setup is There

The uranium market is waking up.

We spent over a decade underinvesting in supply, and now demand is ripping higher. Energy security is the new priority—governments need reliable baseload power, and nuclear is the answer.

The last uranium bull market? Uranium Prices went from $10 to $140 and CCJ 0.00%↑ moved 3000% higher. And what do we have today as Cameco is breaking out of a massive base?

The same setup—tight supply, growing demand, and a shift in the fuel cycle.

Cameco (CCJ) is one of the biggest players in the game. High quality assets, strong partnerships, and positioned to dominate as supply constraints bite.

And here’s the kicker—we’re shifting from underfeeding to overfeeding in the enrichment process. That means more demand for raw uranium.

The world needs more uranium.

And CCJ is sitting on the supply.

The trade is there. Take what the market gives you.

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