Reflections: You Don’t Make Trends-You Ride Them

Big Tech Is Taking a Backseat. 🚀 The leadership shift is real. Metals and cyclicals are in control.

I live for this. Not the money. Not the highs or the lows. I live for the process.

The constant learning. The market is my teacher, and I show up every day ready to listen.

I always say—traders make most of their money from November to April.

Summer?

That’s patience season. Get positioned. Stay ready. But that road from November to April isn’t all sunshine and rainbows. It’s frustrating. It tests you. I used to fight that. Now? I embrace it.

Think of returns like Bollinger Bands. Contraction leads to the breakout.

December 2023 was a grind. January 2024? +25%. Now the futures portfolio is up 34% YTD.

In December, a reader asked if I changed my view on Gold & Silver because they weren’t moving.

Of course not.

A sideways trade doesn’t bother me. Thinking the market should move just because I want it to?

That’s trying to control something I have zero control over.

The market moves when it’s good and damn well ready.

And when Gold finally did, our year and a half long trade continued higher.

That’s the lesson. I don’t make trends. I ride them.

That’s the key.

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You Are Here.

Reflecting on this year, the same themes keep showing up. Over and over again.

But the biggest development? The reflation trade is here to stay.

Every week, you get the update. And every week, it’s the same question:

Where am I?

You are here. In a reflationary environment. China’s ROC model confirms it. The cycle has shifted.

So what do you want to own? Metals.

Gold continues to hit new highs and I wont be a seller until it breaks trend.

But I don’t want to only own precious metals.

I want to own industrial metals as well…

Copper continues to make new highs again and again. What is next? A 52 week high.

Yes, that means gold, silver… and copper

Usually, it’s one or the other. Gold when growth is slowing. Copper when global growth is picking up.

But in this environment? You want both.

And what’s driving this trade? You already know. Covered it on the conference call yesterday (replay coming soon).

This is a cyclical shift—Big Tech taking a backseat while other areas take the lead.

Here’s your playbook for this quarter:

📈 Risk assets over defensives
📊 High beta over low beta
🔄 Cyclicals over staples
🚀 Growth over value
📉 SMIDs over large caps
🌍 International over U.S.
📈 EM over DM

💰 Spread products > Treasuries
🏦 Short rates > belly > long rates
📉 High yield > investment grade

⚙️ Industrial metals first
🌾 Ag commodities next
🛢️ Energy later in the cycle

🥇 Gold > FX > USD

That’s the trade. Play accordingly.

Keep it simple. Use this guide. Take the buy signals. Execute.

Have a great weekend.

Weekend video:

New Show! This one was a blast. Had an awesome time with Joe Duarte—bestselling author & all-around solid dude.

When to buy options for earnings

How to become a writer

Fav trading tools

Market view

4 rules to keep trading simple Masterclass. Don’t miss it.

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Subscribers note:

Wheat is ready for a full position today. I’ll explain more next week :).

Against All Odds Research

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