"Spend More or Learn Russian"
NATO’s New Doctrine and What It Means for Commodities
When NATO’s next chief says, “Spend more or learn Russian,” he’s not joking. A 400% surge in missile defense. Millions more artillery shells. Thousands of tanks. Rutte's vision isn’t just about deterrence—it’s about building an industrial war machine across Europe.
That kind of ramp up doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It means real capital flowing into steel, aluminum, energy, logistics, explosives, and rare earths. It means higher demand for diesel, copper, uranium, and defense related tech. It’s a global rearmament cycle—slow moving, but gathering speed.
This isn’t about one war. It’s a shift in mindset: from peace dividend to security premium.
Commodities benefit from kinetic reindustrialization — you can’t build tanks with spreadsheets.
Energy demand rises as nations stockpile, rebuild refining capacity, and power new supply chains.
Base metals surge as defense, EVs, and infrastructure all compete for constrained resources.
Agriculture, too, enters play if logistics and Black Sea routes remain volatile.
Markets haven't fully priced this in. The world still assumes “soft landing,” disinflation, and rate cuts.
But if geopolitics continues to heat up, fiscal firepower trumps monetary theory.
This is a developing macro tailwind. The commodity trade isn’t just cyclical—it’s political. And now, with the return of Cold War posturing, it’s also existential.
Because here’s the final risk: when everyone prepares for war, war gets closer.
Build enough weapons, draw enough red lines, and eventually—someone crosses one.
And Smart Money Might Already Know It (Smart Money Algo Digging out some gems.)