System Addict: Riding Trends, Not Emotions

Gold, Oil, and Copper: A System Addict’s Framework for What’s Next

In the last 10 post election years, 90% of those years saw the market move higher. (The last 10 election years are highlighted in the green rectangle).

Yes, the picture changes if you go further back… particularly during the stagflation era of the 1970s. Since the Fed began stepping in with easy money policies at the first sign of trouble, post election years have generally trended upward.

Now, as I scroll through the cesspool of social media, I keep hearing the same narrative: “This will be a bad year for markets,” backed by countless reasons.

Here’s the thing: there will always be reasons to be bearish or bullish. The real goal is simple—ride the trends and step off when they end.

That’s it.

The key? Be okay with being wrong. In fact, I believe more money is made by accepting you’ll be wrong sometimes than by constantly trying to be right.

Trying to always be “right” sells newsletters and Discord subscriptions. But it won’t make you money.

Stop chasing perfection.

Traders will never nail the exact top or bottom, but they can consistently catch the meat of the move in the middle.

So, what trends are emerging in 2025, and why am I more bullish than bearish?

Let’s talk about the commodity cycle. When gold rings the dinner bell, it often signals the start of something big.

Now, the relationship between gold, copper, oil, and bonds is nuanced. Just because gold starts moving doesn’t mean everything else follows immediately. It depends on where we are in the business cycle, and on bonds.

Typically, bonds and gold move inversely. Inflation is usually bullish for gold and bearish for bonds. But in the early part of a late cycle environment, bonds and gold can rise together.

Why?