Temporary Peace, Permanent Trends
The dollar is weak, bonds are vulnerable, and commodities are winning.
Everyone thinks the war is over.
It’s not.
At best, it’s paused.
The latest reports are clear: the ceasefire is still technically in place, but fighting and maritime incidents in the Strait of Hormuz are still happening. Even U.S. officials are calling this temporary, not resolved.
That matters.
Because ships still aren’t moving freely through the Strait. And until they are, this situation isn’t “over” in any real sense.
Now look at the market.
It’s reacting in a pretty wild way.
You’ve got bonds ripping higher (I’m still short), gold and silver breaking out, and silver up 6% in a single day.
That’s not a “peace is here” move.
That’s uncertainty.
That’s positioning.
Now bring in the chart.
The dollar is sitting right on support again.
We’ve been here before.
Each time it looks like it might bounce… and each time it fails to follow through. The level keeps getting tested, and like we’ve talked about before, the more a level gets tested, the weaker it becomes.
The primary trend here is still lower.
Zoom out.
Nothing has changed.
Short-term headlines will move markets, sure. If there’s “peace,” energy might sell off for a bit. That’s normal.
But the primary trends are still intact:
Energy → higher
Commodities → higher
Dollar → lower
Bonds → lower
And cyclicals continue to lead.
Positioning reflects that.
We’re still focused on commodities, commodity equities, international stocks, short dollars, short bonds, and long crypto.
Because that’s where the strength is.
Not the headlines.
I’m not bearish on the broad market.
But I am very clear on where the leadership is coming from.
And it’s not changing because of one headline.
Stay ready.
Nothing has changed just yet.
