The 50 Year Break Out Is Here: Important Commodity Market Update!

Everything you need to know about commodities in 5 minutes.

First, La Niña Modoki is wreaking havoc across South America.

North and Central West Brazil are bone dry, South Brazil is underwater, and Argentina is turning into a desert.

That 170 mmt soybean crop everyone’s been dreaming of?

Yeah, not happening. Supplies are tightening for grains, and the market knows it.

Now let’s talk natural gas. After a quick warm up, we’re staring down a massive cold snap.

(NG making a new 52 week high)

A Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is setting the stage for a polar vortex smackdown just in time for Christmas. Eastern U.S.? Get ready to freeze. This is how big nat gas rallies are born.

Over in livestock, it’s a mixed bag. Cattle and hogs? December looks choppy with corrections likely.

Now, for the star of the week: coffee.

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Last week, it closed above 1977’s all time highs, and now it’s flirting with 335.45, the intraday high. Break that level, and we could see the greatest bull market in coffee history. Forget your lattes, this is big time caffeine for the markets.

The big macro theme?

For years, the playbook was short commodities, long stocks, long bonds, and long the dollar. But that’s breaking down.

Grain markets are currently drowning in pessimism and could be the surprise winners as this narrative flips.

(ZC corn had it’s tightest band squeeze in 5 years and is now pulling back to the breakout zone. AAO has a position but this could be another entry point.)

Listen, the fundamentals for corn are about as bullish as a Midwest farmer at sunrise.

The price is finally starting to confirm the fundamentals.

Demand for U.S. corn? Through the roof.

The cash basis? Rock solid. (Cash corn price to futures price)

Important: Next week’s USDA report is likely to show U.S. stocks falling further. The whole “corn glut” narrative? Yeah, that’s fake news. Supplies are fine but far from abundant, which means Brazil’s second corn crop better deliver.

Spoiler alert: It probably won’t.

Bottom line: Grain markets are tightening, nat gas is primed for a winter rally, coffee is going nuts, and the Trump trade unwind could flip markets on their heads. Buckle up 2025 is going to be wild.

Against All Odds Research

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