The Best Election Trade: Bitcoin
4 big ideas and why you it is time to buy Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Breakout!
After a long nine-month range between $72K and $55K—the longest consolidation in its history—Bitcoin has finally broken out. This move is significant for two main reasons: first, it signals a potentially profitable Bitcoin trade, and second, it aligns with the election cycle, which could drive broader market momentum.
I posted a Bitcoin election chart two months ago, which now has become a hot topic, showing the S&P 500 (black line) and Bitcoin (red line).
(Now its a hot topic. A month ago no one cared.)
Historically, Bitcoin consolidates before an election, then breaks out just before, signaling a risk-on shift that often leads the stock market higher.
Macro Charts also highlights the role of the Bitcoin Halving cycle, which occurs roughly every four years and has historically set the stage for rallies. Key Halving dates include:
November 28, 2012
July 9, 2016
May 11, 2020
April 19, 2024
While Halvings may initiate the rally, it's post-election periods where Bitcoin has truly accelerated, breaking out of multi-year bases and sustaining gains for about a year. This pattern could lead us into a bullish period through late 2025.
Adding to the optimism, my friend Larry Thomson from Hostile Charts points out that Bitcoin is set for a record monthly close if it finishes above $71,312.
And it is also consolidating above the 2021 highs, in a tight consolidation for 9 months and then moving higher is what I call a Grade A breakout.
Finally, Jeffrey Hirsch’s seasonality chart shows that we have a tailwind behind us for Bitcoin.
We are at the beginning of an incredibly bullish period for Bitcoin.
October is the bear killer as Jeff always says and that saying rings true for the setup that we have in front of us.
Bitcoin’s recent breakout after a long consolidation signals a potentially profitable trade, especially with the upcoming election cycle historically driving both Bitcoin and the broader market higher.
The Halving cycle adds bullish momentum, aligning with past post-election rallies that sustained gains for about a year. If Bitcoin closes this month above $71,312, it could hit a record monthly high. With October’s strong seasonality for Bitcoin, all signs point to a promising period ahead.
Against All Odds Research
Stay Connected:
YouTube: Against All Odds Research Channel (@againstalloddsresearch)
Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)
Substack: AAO Research
Support the Bees: Help save the native bees! Learn more and get involved here.