The Pain Trade: The Seven Day Scope (Snipers Only)
“You have power over your mind - not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.” ― Marcus Aurelius, Meditations
How was your week?
Are you all in on technology still? Ouch.
Let’s look at the returns over a one month time frame? The worst reflationary sector is down 1.65% vs. the worst goldilocks sector is down 6.68%
Year to date-Energy, Financials, Industrials… Look I know that people will say that we might be headed in to a bear market and that the rally is over. I don’t think it is over. I do think that we continue rotating in to different areas. Different sectors, countries, commodities and more. There is a reason why our portfolios are holding up well and why our futures portfolio is hitting new highs this morning.
If you follow our live videos with Kevin Green, Steve Strazza, Kashyap Sriram and I you have seen how we have advocated how to trade this market.
This week with Kevin Green-https://youtube.com/live/OxftmAW9zlA?feature=share
Today with Kashyap Sriram-https://youtube.com/live/OWRzpFjIX40?feature=share
If you are a subscriber you get a deeper view. You get to see the actual positions that we are in.
So how do you handle these situations as a trader? This is where an emperor comes in to the conversation.
Marcus Aurelius, known for his stoic philosophy and leadership as a Roman emperor, would approach investing with a mindset grounded in patience and rationality. He believed in the importance of taking on challenges with resilience and maintaining a calm, thoughtful approach in his life.
“If you are distressed by anything external, the pain is not due to the thing itself, but to your estimate of it; and this you have the power to revoke at any moment.”
― Marcus Aurelius, Meditations (Read it, it’s life changing)
Be patient, focus on what you can control. I always liked this quote from Paul Tudor Jones. “Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your ass”
Never wishing-No one ever talks about this part of this quote but I think it is the most important piece. If you are getting your ass kicked what do you do? Hope it stops? Wish you all of the sudden grew 200 pounds of muscle? Or do you fight back, move out of the way or grab something to fight back with?
Risk management is key! Know where you are getting out before you get in.
Take small positions. When the market is down 10% and you have a small position in this one instrument it will most likely only be 1 or 2% of your overall portfolio.
Finally don’t be afraid to start over. Get flat and come back to it another day when you have a clear strategy and methodology.
The most volatile asset on earth is only down 13% from an all time high and the world is panicking. This is a time to be patient and wait for your sell signals.
The upcoming 2024 Bitcoin Halving is poised to bring about significant shifts in the mining sector, much like its predecessors. While the precise outcomes remain uncertain, this event will undoubtedly present a mix of challenges and prospects. Miners who adopt strategic planning, considering economic projections alongside operational efficiencies, will find themselves better equipped to maneuver through the post-halving landscape.
For participants in the Bitcoin mining domain, maintaining vigilance and flexibility will prove crucial in harnessing the halving as an opportunity rather than a setback.
VVIX:VIX-No sell signals yet.
Bull/Bear-We are receiving a short term caution signal. However the primary trend is still in tact.
NYSE/SPX-Our broad market index the New York Stock Exchange is bottoming out while the technology heavy $SPX is going lower. This is also leading us to believe that the market will bottom out at some point and reflationary sectors will lead the way higher.
The dot plot is still between two regimes at the moment, fundamentally. Stagflation and reflation. Either way, this helps us to know where we want to position ourselves.
Relative Strength and momentum are also telling us where to go. XLE, XLU, XLP, XLB, XLI XLF are all giving us momentum signals to the upside. This is between both regimes. Most of these can go up in both stagflationary (as long as inflationary pressure is not too high) and reflationary. I would continue to watch XLE and XLU. If XLE continues to outperform the market will most likely trade in a risk on environment. If XLU starts to outperform we will head in to a risk off environment.
Coffee-Positioning has become a bit crowded so we may see a stall in our rally here but technicals and fundamentals are still telling us that it could move higher. Still holding!
Gold continues to shine with impressive performance, despite dire warnings from concerned experts. Countries around the world (excluding the U.S.) are increasingly acquiring gold, leading to banks facing challenges with limited vault capacity due to the surge in demand for the precious metal.
Once again. “There’s no fever like gold fever.”
”Inflate or Die”
Stay informed. Stay resilient. Against all odds.
Warm regards, Jason Perz
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Against All Odds Research
jperz1985@icloud.com