The Commodity Explosion: We have the ingredients!

Are you ready? It's almost here.

Coffee is near all-time highs, up over 40%, orange juice has jumped 65%, silver is up 30%, and gold is up 25% year-to-date. Our call options have soared, with some up over 200%, and a few have increased 5x. Despite the skepticism, commodities have been moving, but the trades have been tactical.

Since 2022, I’ve emphasized that the commodity trade would be more selective—buying the right ones at the right time. Unlike 2020-21, when almost any commodity could make you money, this is a new cycle.

Certain commodities like cocoa moved early, and gold has given us the signal for the rest of the precious metals. Softs are starting to move, and agricultural commodities are next.

It looks like agricultural commodities have bottomed across the board, carving out higher lows and starting to move up.

Despite some rain relief, droughts in Brazil, the U.S., and Russia/Ukraine continue to impact key markets like soybeans, winter wheat, orange juice, sugar, and coffee. While some regions, especially Brazil’s coffee areas, may see more rain, many winter wheat and soybean areas are still at risk of staying too dry.

We have two buy signals we need to act on-