The Commodity War Has Begun
And Oil Is Ready to Join the Party
There are moments in markets when price stops reacting the way it’s “supposed” to.
Those moments matter more than any headline.
We’re in one of those moments right now.
The world just watched the U.S. effectively take control of the largest oil-producing nation in South America — Venezuela — and oil didn’t collapse. In fact, it did the opposite. Futures opened flat when everyone was positioned for a gap down, and as I write this, crude is up nearly 2%.
That’s not noise, that’s information.
I’ve seen this movie before.
The 2022 Playbook: When Everyone Was Looking the Wrong Way
Go back to October 2022.
The macro environment was toxic.
Inflation was screaming.
The Fed was hiking.
Recession calls were everywhere.
And yet, the S&P 500 refused to break.
That was the setup that led to one of the most important calls I’ve ever made — Buying the October Bottom. It wasn’t about being brave. It wasn’t about prediction. It was about recognizing when bad news stopped working.
“Markets bottom when the last seller sells — not when the news improves.”
— Victor Sperandeo
On the chart, SPY had already absorbed everything it was supposed to fear. The selling pressure dried up. Shorts pressed. And price simply… stopped going down.
What followed was a multi-year rally.
Today, I see the same structure forming in oil.
