Against All Odds Research

Against All Odds Research

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Against All Odds Research
Against All Odds Research
The Discipline Hedge Funds Forgot

The Discipline Hedge Funds Forgot

While they overhedge and underperform, we follow price—and it's working.

Jason Perz's avatar
Jason Perz
May 21, 2025
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Against All Odds Research
Against All Odds Research
The Discipline Hedge Funds Forgot
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Our Strategy Is Working. The Data Speaks for Itself.

We’re not trying to outguess the market and we don’t chase headlines or predict policy shifts.

We follow trends, rotate into strength and stick with what’s working—and that discipline is delivering results.


Our Portfolios Are Leading

Our strategies are outperforming, not by chance, but by process:

  • The Futures Portfolio is up +31.89% year-to-date

  • The Macro Thematic Portfolio (no levergage) has returned +17.16% in 2025

  • Standout positions include:

    • Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ): +47.69%

    • Gold (GC_F): +26.21%

    • Poland (EPOL): +44.04%

    • Bitcoin (BTCUSD): +17.06%

These gains didn’t come from macro forecasts or luck. They came from following a process: buy strength, follow trends, cut losers.


Meanwhile, Hedge Funds Are Struggling

While our positions push higher, major hedge fund benchmarks are falling behind YTD:

  • SG Trend Index: -11.54%

  • SG CTA Index: -8.43%

  • Short-Term Traders Index: -0.91%

  • Multi-Alternative Risk Premia: +1.50%

  • U.S. S&P 500: -0.30%

These big funds have resources, leverage, and scale. But they’re often over hedged, overly complex, and slow to adapt.


This Is a Behavioral Game

This is a lesson in discipline. Most investors chase what feels safe—consensus, narratives, or what just worked. But markets reward behavior, not comfort. Following trends means pushing past loss aversion and recency bias. That’s not easy but that’s why it works. Success doesn’t come from conviction—it comes from consistency.


Why We’re Outperforming

We’re not trying to be right. We’re staying with what’s working until it stops.

Here’s what we do:

  • Follow price, not opinions

  • Buy leaders, not laggards

  • Exit when trends break

  • Stay flexible because the market doesn't wait

Simple works. Especially when others get in their own way.


The Bottom Line

While many hedge funds play defense, we’re leaning into strength.

This isn’t about bold calls it’s about process.

It’s about showing up with a repeatable system and letting price lead.

We’re right where we need to be.

And the results speak for themselves.

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