Against All Odds Research

Against All Odds Research

The Dollar Is Fading: The Market Is Repricing Everything

Why capital is flowing into metals, currencies, and real assets

Jason Perz's avatar
Jason Perz
Dec 15, 2025
∙ Paid

We Are Still in a Weak Dollar Regime

And the market keeps confirming it.

Let’s start with the big picture.

The U.S. dollar is in a structural downtrend, and nothing we’re seeing right now suggests that regime has ended. The recent bounces haven’t changed the character of the move. They’ve simply been pauses inside a broader decline.

At the same time, global liquidity is trending higher. Leading indicators of liquidity continue to point up over the medium term. That matters, because liquidity doesn’t show up immediately in CPI prints or headlines. It shows up first in asset leadership.

And the leadership is screaming one thing:

This is a weak dollar environment.


The Scoreboard: Futures YTD Returns Don’t Lie

If you want the cleanest evidence, look at the YTD futures return list.

Silver.
Platinum.
Palladium.
Gold.

This is the exact structure of a real precious metals bull market.

  • Gold leads first.

  • Then silver starts to outperform.

  • Then platinum and palladium join the move.

  • The complex broadens.

I’ve been talking about this setup for two years.
In 2025, it finally happened.

This isn’t a trade anymore. It’s a regime.


Currency Markets Are Confirming the Thesis

Now look at currencies.

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