The Dollar’s Decline Is Fueling a Global Market Shift—A Generational Opportunity
As bonds signal a liquidity shift and the dollar weakens, money is flowing into international stocks. The market isn’t crashing—it’s rotating. Are you ready?
Bonds, equities, and currencies are telling a story this week.
Let’s walk through it.
Bonds are the most important trading tool you’ll ever use. They tell you everything—growth, inflation, liquidity. The U.S. bond market isn’t just big; it’s the market that sets the tone for everything else.
Look at the 2-year yield. It started surging the moment the Fed began cutting rates. That shift made us rethink bonds—we expected yields to climb on the short end of the curve, forcing the Fed to slow its hikes.
Now, the story has flipped again. Yields are heading lower. Liquidity is loosening. And when liquidity shifts, money moves—fast.
As capital finds its way back into the market, one big question looms:
👉 Is this just another pause before the Fed ramps up liquidity again?
👉 Or is this the inflationary rotation I’ve been waiting for? A structural shift, not a hiccup.
The move in international stocks is telling. While the S&P 500 is up just 0.37% YTD, many international ETFs are up over 10%.
The global AD line is painting the same picture.
The U.S. market isn’t collapsing. It’s just... changing.
Most likely the US market will see a nice bounce to start March as we get out of this bad seasonal period.
📊 Long term breadth is still bullish. Short term is neutral.
📈 SPDR sector performance isn’t as weak as many think—discretionary, tech, and energy are lagging, but the rest?
Holding firm.
And it all comes down to the dollar.
A weaker dollar does something powerful—it forces money to move.
When the dollar falls, U.S. assets lose some of their gravitational pull, and capital seeks returns elsewhere.
Right now, that means international stocks.
The U.S. is showing weakness across the board. Global markets are trending higher.
This isn’t an end. It’s a shift.
Gold miners have quietly been one of the biggest themes of the year.
In a market where narratives shift daily, they’ve held their ground—not just as a trade, but as a structural play.
Across every U.S. sector, gold miners have remained a stronghold in our long-term portfolio. Not a quick swing, not a reaction to headlines—just steady positioning in a trend that’s been unfolding beneath the surface.
(Our long term portfolio should not to be confused with our futures swing trading portfolio, which plays a different game entirely.)
The market is always shifting. But some themes persist longer than people expect. Gold miners have been one of them.
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Nice update Jason!