The Last Time This Happened, Sugar Prices Exploded—It’s Happening Again

Extreme commercial buying + macro tailwinds = potential breakout.

I want to buy sugar because the macro and technical setup are aligning, and when that happens, I pay attention.

Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer, dominates global supply. But here’s the kicker—tariffs and trade restrictions on global supplies could tighten the market even further, pushing prices higher.

Countries imposing duties on sugar imports will reduce available supply, leading to a classic supply demand squeeze.

At the same time, India’s lower production, weather risks, and shifting ethanol demand are keeping global inventories tight.

COT data is flashing extreme commercial buying(The red line highlights the major commercial buying)—levels we haven’t seen since March 2020, right before sugar’s last major rally.