The Role of Global Economic Conditions in Coffee Trading
Buy stop hit on coffee! (Paywall removed)
Trade Setup: Coffee Futures (KC) – Dec 2025 contract
Buy: Coffee Futures (KC) above 169 (hit)
Stop: 19% trailing stop
Exit: On a 60-day low
Commercial buying (red line) is at it’s second highest level in history with falling commercial interest.
That is bullish!
Brazil’s Weather is Perfect – Central Brazil is setting up for a strong 2024 crop. Ideal conditions mean solid supply, but that’s already priced in.
Post-Harvest Rally in Full Swing – Roaster demand is picking up, ICE certified stocks are moving to new lows, and the market is responding.
November Lows? Not This Time – Last year, certified stocks bottomed on Nov 4th before a massive rip higher. This time? That setup looks less likely, reinforcing market strength.
Smart Money is Buying – Commercial traders are loading up while open interest drops. Classic bullish behavior.
Macro Tailwinds – Tight global coffee supplies, rising production costs, and a stronger Brazilian real all point to higher prices ahead.
Coffee’s brewing something big. Stay tuned.
Jason Perz AAO Research