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Bitcoin, mining, Breadth, Small Caps, Sentiment and is this bull market over?
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Bitcoin News-Former President Donald Trump has announced his desire for all remaining bitcoin to be mined in the U.S., framing it as a defense against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). During a meeting with executives from CleanSpark Inc. and Riot Platforms, Trump emphasized that domestic bitcoin mining would contribute to U.S. energy dominance. His push for U.S.-based bitcoin mining signals a shift in how the industry is perceived, promoting national energy use and security while countering foreign influence.
Personally, I don’t think that this is a politician who is going to move us in to a system outside of the dollar. I do not have any belief in any politician. If you have followed me for awhile, you know that I am not even in that game. Either way, this is interesting and it is a good thing that others might understand a little more about our monetary system. Either way, this would be good for the industry in the US.
Bitcoin adoption is gaining momentum as Brazil's largest bank, launches bitcoin trading for its 60 million customers through its Ion investment app. DeFi Technologies Inc. has adopted bitcoin as its main treasury reserve asset, starting with a purchase of 110 bitcoins. Bitdeer Technologies introduced its new SEAL04 chip, aimed at reducing bitcoin mining energy consumption, with mass production expected by Q4 2025. Japanese firm Metaplanet continues to accumulate corporate bitcoin reserves, purchasing an additional ¥250 million ($1.8 million) worth of bitcoin. Additionally, Samson Mow predicts an "explosive" price action for bitcoin, potentially reaching $10 million per bitcoin due to current market conditions.
Our short term trade went well. Right to the top of the range but now we are stuck in that range. There is no signal at this point until we move higher or lower. Break out traders should place a buy stop above 73k. We still have our long position.
New video: Steve Strazza, Kevin Green and I dive deep in to sectors and more… https://studio.youtube.com/video/rKLvHA88Dj4/edit
I said this over and over again that just because we are starting to see reasons that tech could be long in the tooth here, we will stay long technology. I will give you a couple reasons why.
1. You never know where your biggest winner will come from. Meaning, I can’t tell you if it will stop here. I can say that the trend is up, so I will stay long. I could not tell you that SMH would still be in an uptrend after it has gone up over 150%.
Sometimes the price action helps you fade yourself.
Fuck what I think, it is all about what the market is doing.
2. I have more reasons but that is the only reason that matters. If the trend is up, stay long.
Will Small Caps ever lead again?
Will Breadth ever widen out again? Maybe but stay long tech for now.
At this point our Bull/Bear indicator is still holding up. We are at the point where we could see some volatility and corrections. Also we need to keep in mind, how the Vix looks.
The VIX is still pointing to more upside in the market. However, with the VIX sitting down here. You have to to be ready for pops and pull backs.
Heating oil had a massive move off of it’s low and closed about the 40 day moving average yesterday.
I guess, I don’t get to say it topped anymore.
Technically this could be deemed as our long, long term trend model. It is still saying the primary up trend is in tact.
Our position trading model is still pointing to higher prices.
This was interesting: From DB-In 2023, there were more than 150,000 AI job postings for engineers that know Python, more than ten times a decade ago between 2011-13.
BofA: I like when a market is in an uptrend and we are seeing some form of fear. It is not a clear signal yet but that is interesting.
Any way you look at it, this is NOT what a top looks like in the market. More upside ahead? Likely. Summer volatility ahead? Definitely!
Warm regards, Jason Perz
YouTube: @againstalloddsresearch https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLvDNCnhNQbQnABUSFbwagg
Twitter: @jasonp138
Substack: aaoresearch.substack.com
Against All Odds Research
Say you missed the tech rally because you were didactic and in love with your own bearishness in 2023. Now you realize the folly of those ways, and have assembled great returns this year so far. Letting go of what you think and following price. Would you buy XLK or QQQ here? Because I just can’t and I’ve been wrestling with myself about it. I see the breakout. I still can’t.
I can’t because I smell the bad breadth. I also admit I kinda don’t like big tech. But I’d still buy it if I thought it looked good here. But this rally is so long at this point- I just can’t buy that stuff rn.