The Strange Truce That Just Rewired the Global Economy
Thematic Deep Dive: AI. Commodities. Crypto. This isn’t a headline—it’s the next regime.
The U.S.–China trade war is over. For the moment. A new deal is being drafted. And quietly, the foundation of the next decade is falling into place.
This isn’t about tariffs. It’s about AI dominance, military power, and the global monetary reset already underway.
Two superpowers just realized they can’t win without each other—at least not yet.
It looks like the U.S.–China trade war is ending. Behind the scenes, a new agreement is taking shape and is expected to be finalized by fall 2025. This isn’t about tariffs anymore. It’s about survival—for both nations.
Each side has realized something critical: to move forward with their AI and military ambitions, they need each other—at least for now.
For China, it’s simple. Without U.S.-made AI chips, its push for technological and military supremacy stalls. No advanced chips, no AI race. That’s the reality.
For the U.S., it’s equally clear. Without rare earth metals and specialized magnets—supplied mostly by China—the modernization of the U.S. Military Industrial Complex and the scaling of AI infrastructure becomes impossible.
In short, both sides were checkmated. And once that became obvious, a framework for a new trade deal came together quickly. The goal isn’t long-term harmony—it’s buying time. Both countries want three years to develop alternative supply chains and break the current dependency.
Until then, they need each other.
What This Means for Grains
A thaw in trade relations between the U.S. and China likely leads to a new agricultural deal. China could shift part of its demand from Brazil back to the U.S. Just as that happens, U.S. grain supplies are tightening. A renewable diesel mandate begins in 2026, placing even more strain on inventories.
If China returns as a major buyer, it would trigger a major repricing event in U.S. grains. Supply is tight, and prices are low. That’s a setup.
This article from China outlines the direction this new trade relationship may take.
The Digital Monetary Reset Has Already Started
For years we’ve been asked what the next monetary system will look like. Here’s my view:
The era of a single-nation reserve currency—like the U.S. dollar—is ending. What’s coming next is a digital, multi-asset system with Bitcoin as the anchor.
I have owned crypto currency since 2014 and I have seen 3 cycles move through this market.
This one is significant.
Now, the infrastructure to support the next phase is finally in place. The advent of stablecoins was the turning point—our "ChatGPT moment" in finance. They offer a bridge between traditional finance and digital assets, enabling global liquidity across two parallel systems.
The recent IPO of Circle Internet Group, a leader in stablecoin infrastructure, is telling. The stock is up 7x from its IPO price, and more than 2x from its first traded price. That’s not hype. It’s demand.
Stablecoins are the liquidity rails. Bitcoin is the reference asset. But we need a functional blockchain infrastructure to move real world assets across this new system.
That’s where Ethereum, Solana and others come in. These networks are becoming the pipes for tokenizing assets like real estate, stocks, farmland, and commodities. Ethereum is leading. And it could be undervalued.
Tokenization and the Rise of Smarter Markets
Over $175 trillion in real-world U.S. dollar-based assets are up for reclassification into this new system. Tokenization will fractionalize them. Smart contracts will settle them. Digital ledgers will track them.
This doesn’t just increase liquidity. It creates premium pricing for assets verified as sustainable or ethically sourced. For example:
Was corn grown using irrigation or not?
Was copper mined using child labor?
Blockchain will answer those questions and reprice the assets accordingly. That’s how Smarter Markets emerge.