The Summer Soldier and the Inflation Rebellion
The Summer Soldier and the Inflation Setup
“These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country…”
— Thomas Paine, 1776
It’s one of my favorite lines in all of literature — and one of the best metaphors for trading. Because right now, we’re surrounded by summer soldiers.
Oil drops 4% and suddenly “the inflation trade is dead.” Same crowd that was calling for $150 crude six months ago now can’t stomach a pullback.
But here’s the thing: the structure hasn’t changed.
Inflation Is Setting Up for Another Leg Higher
Let’s step back and look at what’s actually happening.
The Fed is still cutting rates. Odds are building for one more cut in December. Fiscal authorities are talking about $2,000 stimulus checks. Trump has floated a 50-year mortgage, which would inject liquidity and keep home prices artificially high.
And now, policymakers are quietly shifting the goalposts on inflation.
Kevin Hassett from the White House said he’s comfortable with 3%.
The Fed says 3% “for the short term” is fine.
Even Trump brushed off affordability as a “con job.”
Translation: they’re telling you they don’t mind higher inflation.
When the people in charge start normalizing 3% inflation targets, cut rates, and send out checks — it’s not a deflationary playbook. It’s a reflationary one.
If they’re trying to make inflation move higher… they’re going to get it.
