The Surprise Trade of the Year

It’s not what everyone’s watching. It’s what they’ve already forgotten.

Everyone’s playing the same hand right now: long duration, long tech, long the “rate cuts are coming” narrative.

But what if the next move… is higher yields?

Look at this chart.

Copper and 10-Year Treasury yields have been dancing in sync for two decades. Every major regime shift, every reflationary cycle, every policy pivot—it’s all there. And they’re moving together again.

Copper just posted its highest monthly close in history. The 10-year yield is quietly pressing toward multi-year highs. Yet everyone is still betting on cuts. Why?

Because they want it to happen. Because they need it to happen.

That’s not analysis—that’s hope. And hope doesn’t pay.

Behavioral economics 101: When a trade becomes consensus, it stops working. The entire market is leaning into the idea that rates must fall, that inflation is done, that the Fed has no choice but to ease.

But markets don’t work that way. They move in the direction that hurts the most people.

And the pain trade now? It’s higher yields.