This Was My Best Year as a Portfolio Manager

The mental rules that finally made everything click

Before I get into anything else, I want to start here:

This was my best year ever as a portfolio manager.
+180.2%.

That number matters. Not because it’s a flex—but because it’s the scoreboard. Returns are the only thing that keep us honest. And those returns didn’t come from predicting headlines, chasing narratives, or trying to be clever. They came from internal rules. Mental rules.

These are the most valuable lessons I’ve learned, distilled after years of scars, mistakes, and finally, consistency.

I want to frame them through three traders who helped shape how I think—not about charts, but about behavior: Bruce Kovner, Jesse Livermore, and Victor Sperandeo.

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Lesson #1: Clarity Beats Conviction (Kovner)

Early in my career, I thought conviction was strength. I was wrong.

Conviction is only useful until price proves you wrong. After that, it becomes ego. Kovner’s biggest lesson—and one I live by now—is holding strong views loosely. I can believe deeply in a macro theme and still walk away the moment the market invalidates it.

That mental flexibility is everything.

The second part of this lesson is defining exits before entries. Stress in trading doesn’t come from losses—it comes from uncertainty. If I know where I’m wrong before I get in, my emotions stay neutral. No panic. No freezing. No rationalizing.

Survival is success. If you stay in the game, opportunity always comes back around.

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Lesson #2: Patience Is a Weapon (Livermore)

Livermore said the real money is made sitting. That sounds boring. It’s also true.

Most traders don’t lose because they’re wrong—they lose because they can’t wait. They feel pressure to act. Pressure to be involved. Pressure to do something.

My edge this year wasn’t activity. It was restraint.

I waited for alignment. I waited for confirmation. I waited for price to move first.

And when trades were on? I let them work. I didn’t micromanage winners. I didn’t trade my P&L. I traded the process.

Another hard-earned truth: you never argue with price. The market is never wrong. The moment you try to prove it wrong, you start bleeding capital and confidence at the same time.

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Lesson #3: Risk First, Everything Else Second (Sperandeo)

Victor Sperandeo taught me something that completely reframed trading for me:

A trader’s job is not to predict—it’s to manage risk.

Prediction feeds ego. Risk management feeds longevity.

Small losses aren’t failures. They’re proof of discipline. They’re the cost of doing business. Once you internalize that emotionally, you stop revenge trading. You stop hesitating. You stop trying to “make it back.”

You also learn adaptability. When conditions change, you change. No attachment. No loyalty to yesterday’s thesis. Markets evolve—and so must you.

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The Common Thread

All three of these traders understood the same thing:

Your biggest edge isn’t information.
It’s behavior.

Calm beats excitement.
Flexibility beats certainty.
Survival beats heroics.

That’s what powered this year. That’s what allowed the winners to compound. And that’s what kept the inevitable losses small.

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What’s Next

Once all the final portfolio numbers are in, I’ll be releasing the official year-end portfolio review (Also our 2026 macro view) this weekend for our Premium subscribers. Full transparency. What worked. What didn’t. Where I struggled mentally. And how the process evolved.

I’ll lead by example—always. That means showing the mistakes, the battles, and the lessons just as much as the wins.

Because that’s where the real edge is built.

More soon.

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Stay Connected:

• YouTube: Against All Odds Research Channel (@againstalloddsresearch)

• Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)

• Substack: AAO Research

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