Trend Following Part 4: Why Most People Can’t Stick With It
Where most systems break has nothing to do with charts.
Everyone loves the idea of riding a big winner. Few have the mindset to actually do it.
Most traders say they want to follow trends. They say they want to avoid chop, stop trying to catch bottoms, and just ride strength.
Then the trade pulls back. The trend slows. Volatility kicks in. The unrealized gains evaporate. And the flinch happens.
This is where most people break their own system. Not because the setup failed. But because they couldn’t handle the discomfort.
They override.
They exit early.
They tweak the rules.
And every time they do, they lose the edge.
The Real Work: Behavior, Not Backtests
Behavioral economists have been studying this for decades.
Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Prize-winning psychologist, showed that we feel losses twice as strongly as we feel equivalent gains. That’s called loss aversion, and it’s one of the main reasons traders exit too early. A trend pulls back 5%, and suddenly the fear of giving back a gain outweighs the possibility of letting it run.
Richard Thaler calls this myopic loss aversion—our tendency to zoom in on short-term pain and lose sight of long-term outcomes. Traders who check P&Ls too often are especially vulnerable to this.
Even some of the best trend followers have talked about this. Jerry Parker, one of the original Turtles, said: “The most difficult thing is not taking a signal. The most difficult thing is sticking with a winner.”
And Tom Basso, known as Mr. Serenity, reminds us that: “Your job isn’t to predict the future. It’s to follow the process, unemotionally.”
Following trends isn’t hard because the math is complex. It’s hard because the drawdowns are real. The patience required is uncommon. And the boredom between signals is brutal.
Following trends isn’t hard because the math is complex. It’s hard because the drawdowns are real. The patience required is uncommon. And the boredom between signals is brutal.
Trend following works slowly—and then all at once. And most people never wait long enough to see the payoff.
The edge only shows up when you stick to it.
👉 Missed the earlier parts of the series? Start here:
What Helps:
Structure over discretion
Pre-set exits and stop placement
Sizing based on volatility
A checklist before every entry or systematic entries
Knowing when to do nothing (most of the time)
Learn More About Trend Following:
The Turtle Trading Rules (PDF) (Must read)
Final Thought:
If you want to follow trends, you have to become someone who can live inside discomfort.
Because the real test isn’t catching the trend.
It’s staying in it.
🔄 Stay With the Process
Most traders break not because their system failed — but because they did.
If this hit home, you’re not alone. That’s why we built Against All Odds Research.
Every week, we walk through:
Real trend setups
How we size positions
Where we place stops
And how we stay in the trade when it gets uncomfortable
📬 Subscribe to Against All Odds Research and get the tools to follow trends with conviction, not emotion:
👉 Join here
Because trend following only works if you stick with it.
Against All Odds Research
Stay Connected:
YouTube: Against All Odds Research Channel (@againstalloddsresearch)
Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)
Substack: AAO Research
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You gotta get outta my head man. Hope you are doing well and feeling better. Cheers chris