Trump Can't Stop Inflation

“A man is none the less a slave because he is allowed to choose a new master once in a term of years.” Lysander Spooner

I'm an anarchist.

I usually keep this side of me separate from my financial media work, but I think it's key for understanding my approach. This perspective helps me stay unbiased about politics and view the market objectively.

Maybe I just watched too much George Carlin as a kid.

People often think anarchism means chaos, but that's far from the truth. Anarchy, from the Greek "an-" (without) and "arkhos" (ruler), simply means no central authority.

To see the cage, is to leave it.

An Objective Look At the Dollar

The dollar is the cornerstone of the macro landscape. Every day, the first chart I check is the US dollar. It is the world’s reserve currency and one of the best performing fiat currencies over time.

While it’s not “real money” in a hard asset sense, it’s crucial in the markets, and understanding its direction helps shape investment positions.

The dollar typically dips toward year-end as holiday spending and market optimism lead investors to put dollars into US stocks.

(Chart from Grant Hawkridge/ Sign up for Grant’s free daily note)

The gray line shows how the dollar behaves in election years, often spiking right after the election. I noted this spike higher before the election, and once the post-election bump fades, usually within a week or two and then the dollar often heads lower.

We’ve seen this pattern before: in 2008, 2012, and 2016, the dollar spiked after the election and then sold off.