Watch Where the Money Is Going
Global Rotation Is Favoring Commodities, Small Caps, and International Markets
Today’s theme is global rotation.
This isn’t subtle anymore. Capital is moving — and it’s moving away from crowded US technology and toward commodities, international markets, and regions that have been ignored for years.
This is how big cycles turn.
Start With Currencies
Currencies are often the first tell, and right now they’re flashing early but important signals.
Look at the commodity currencies. The Australian dollar (AUD), New Zealand dollar (NZD), and Norwegian krone (NOK) are finally catching a bid. These currencies don’t move in isolation. They tend to strengthen when industrial commodities like oil, steel, and base metals are starting to move higher.
That matters.
AUD and NZD are tightly linked to global growth and raw material demand. NOK is directly levered to energy. When these currencies begin to outperform on a relative basis, it’s telling you that global capital is positioning for higher commodity activity ahead — not behind.
This is early rotation behavior. It doesn’t show up in headlines first. It shows up in FX.
And if this continues, currencies themselves could become some of the best trades over the coming years.
International Leadership Is Expanding
Now zoom out to the International ETF Leadership Dashboard.
This isn’t a one-country story. Leadership is broadening across Latin America, parts of Asia, and select emerging and developed markets tied to commodities and manufacturing. Peru, Colombia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, South Korea — these aren’t random winners. They’re economies levered to real assets, industrial demand, and global reflation.
Most of these markets are:
Above their long-term moving averages
Improving on a relative strength basis
Quietly outperforming the S&P 500
This is what early international leadership looks like. It doesn’t ring bells. It builds, then accelerates.
If oil continues to move higher, the upside in these countries could be large this year. Energy acts as a multiplier. When it trends, commodity exporters don’t just drift — they reprice.
US Tech vs Small Caps: The Internal Rotation
The third chart ties this together.
The ratio of Nasdaq 100 vs Small Caps tells a familiar story. When US tech is leading, capital is concentrated, defensive growth is favored, and liquidity stays narrow. When small caps outperform, it usually signals broader risk appetite and economic expansion.
Right now, small caps are doing very well — and they’re outperforming large-cap technology.
This isn’t theoretical. It’s happening in the portfolio.
That shift matters because it aligns with what we’re seeing globally:
Less concentration
More breadth
More cyclicality
It’s another confirmation that this rotation isn’t just geographic — it’s structural.
The Big Picture
Put it all together:
Commodity currencies are waking up
International markets are breaking out
Small caps are outperforming US tech
That’s not noise. That’s rotation.
In my view, the international trade is just getting started. The biggest gains rarely happen at the moment everyone agrees — they happen after long periods of neglect.
Watch currencies closely. They’ll tell you when this move is accelerating — and when it’s time to press.
Stay ready.
This cycle still has room to run.
