Welcome to Stagflation

For the last year, I’ve been talking about how the biggest risk to the global economy wasn’t recession.

It was stagflation.

Now the European Central Bank is effectively telling us the same thing.

Look at the chart.

Just six months ago, the ECB expected inflation to be 1.9% in 2026. By March, that estimate jumped to 2.6%. Now they’re forecasting 3.0%.

At the …